luckadjusted

Week 15 2024 · December 15, 2024

Packers at Seahawks, Week 15 2024: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Seahawks 30–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Packers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 3:07 left): the Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 9, worth 11 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 30
Seattle Seahawks 13

December 15, 2024 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Packers −3

Luck index +4 Packers about even · −4 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 10, Seahawks win 0.

  1. 1 GB 55 SEA 14
  2. 2 GB 41 SEA 10
  3. 3 GB 30 SEA 3
  4. 4 GB 38 SEA 16
  5. 5 GB 33 SEA 14
  6. 6 GB 37 SEA 20
  7. 7 GB 34 SEA 20
  8. 8 GB 28 SEA 18
  9. 9 GB 12 SEA 6
  10. 10 GB 23 SEA 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 96% of them, Seahawks 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+74.0%
Packers by 9–1615.5%
Packers by 1–86.8%
Level after regulation0.6%
Seahawks by 1–82.2%
Seahawks by 9–160.8%
Seahawks by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.9 points to the Packers: the final margin was Packers by 17, without the luck Packers by 11.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 48 yds made · 78% expected
  • B. McManus, 39 yds made · 90% expected
  • B. McManus, 21 yds made · 100% expected
  • J. Myers, 45 yds made · 83% expected
  • B. McManus, 23 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Packers 5 for 27 yards, Seahawks 5 for 108 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:17 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 15 yards +5% GB +1.5 pts
Q1 1:08 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% GB +2.0 pts
Q2 6:09 Defensive Holding on the Packers (Keisean Nixon), 5 yards +1% SEA +0.8 pts
Q2 4:03 Defensive Holding on the Packers (Keisean Nixon), 5 yards +1% SEA +0.9 pts
Q2 2:54 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 7 yards, wiping out the play +2% SEA +1.2 pts
Q2 0:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 34 yards +3% GB +1.2 pts
Q3 11:35 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% GB +2.3 pts
Q3 6:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Josh Jobe), 39 yards +1% GB +2.3 pts
Q3 2:44 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA +0.5 pts
Q4 13:27 Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA +0.6 pts

Packers penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:17 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 19 flags in 3093 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +5% GB GB: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:31 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +4% GB SEA: Punt
3 Q1 1:08 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% GB GB: Field goal
4 Q2 13:43 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +5% GB SEA: Field goal
5 Q2 3:11 The Seahawks got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% SEA SEA: Turnover
6 Q2 3:07 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedThe Seahawks threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% GB SEA: Punt
7 Q3 11:35 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% GB GB: Punt
8 Q4 9:41 The Packers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% GB GB: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kenneth Walker III (SEA RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Anthony Bradford (SEA G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Javon Bullard (GB SS), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 96% · Seahawks 4%

Final margin
Packers by 17
Luck in points
5.9 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 11.1
Replay with same day's form
Packers 96% · Seahawks 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2024 games · Packers · Seahawks

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