Week 15 2024 · December 15, 2024
Steelers at Eagles, Week 15 2024: who deserved to win?
The Eagles beat the Steelers 27–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 8 of 10. The Steelers had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Before kickoff the Eagles were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:17 left): the Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 19 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Final
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 13 |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Eagles | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Eagles about even · −16 Steelers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Steelers win 2, Eagles win 8.
- 1 PIT 24 PHI 13
- 2 PIT 20 PHI 17
- 3 PIT 26 PHI 28
- 4 PIT 17 PHI 21
- 5 PIT 14 PHI 20
- 6 PIT 16 PHI 25
- 7 PIT 0 PHI 13
- 8 PIT 7 PHI 23
- 9 PIT 2 PHI 21
- 10 PIT 6 PHI 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Steelers win 16% of them, Eagles 84%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Steelers by 17+ | 0.9% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 3.7% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 10.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.1% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 27.1% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 24.1% |
| Eagles by 17+ | 32.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Elliott, 34 yds made · 93% expected
- C. Boswell, 37 yds made · 91% expected
- C. Boswell, 49 yds made · 77% expected
- J. Elliott, 41 yds made · 84% expected
Penalties: Steelers 5 for 60 yards, Eagles 7 for 54 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:13 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Calvin Austin III), 15 yards | +5% PHI +1.4 pts |
| Q1 0:34 | Illegal Motion on the Steelers (Van Jefferson), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PHI +0.7 pts |
| Q1 0:12 | Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% PHI +1.9 pts |
| Q2 8:26 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Reed Blankenship), 15 yards | +2% PIT +1.9 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% PIT +0.5 pts |
| Q3 12:44 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (DeVonta Smith), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% PIT +2.4 pts |
| Q3 9:45 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Montravius Adams), 15 yards | +8% PHI +2.5 pts |
| Q3 8:55 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards | +3% PIT +1.1 pts |
| Q4 12:27 | Tripping on the Steelers, 15 yards | 0% PHI +1.4 pts |
| Q4 10:40 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Jalen Carter), 3 yards | 0% PIT +0.2 pts |
| Q4 10:29 | False Start on the Eagles (A.J. Brown), 1 yard · pre-snap | 0% PIT +0.5 pts |
| Q4 3:19 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards | 0% PIT +1.1 pts |
Steelers penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Eagles’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:17 | The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedThe Eagles fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +19% PIT | PHI: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 4:57 | The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +7% PHI | PIT: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 4:25 | The Eagles fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +11% PIT | PHI: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 2:00 | The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedFalse Start on the Eagles, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +7% PIT | PHI: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 0:59 | P. Freiermuth dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 162 catchable balls before this | +5% PHI | PIT: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 12:44 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (DeVonta Smith), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 4004 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 | +7% PIT | PIT: Turnover |
| 7 | Q3 9:45 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Montravius Adams), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1775 snaps before, position avg 1 per 528 | +8% PHI | PHI: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 5:56 | The Steelers fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% PHI | PIT: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- George Pickens (PIT WR), out · 1.2 pts
- DeShon Elliott (PIT FS), out · 0.4 pts
- Larry Ogunjobi (PIT DT), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Steelers 3% · Eagles 97%
- Final margin
- Eagles by 14
- Luck in points
- 1.7 for the Eagles
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eagles by 12.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Steelers 16% · Eagles 84% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2024 games · 
Steelers · 
Eagles
More from Week 15 2024
- Rams at 49ers LA 12–6 · replay 60% for the winner
- Ravens at Giants BAL 35–14 · replay 98% for the winner
- Bengals at Titans CIN 37–27 · replay 80% for the winner
- Cowboys at Panthers DAL 30–14 · replay 81% for the winner
- Chiefs at Browns KC 21–7 · replay 98% for the winner
- Dolphins at Texans HOU 20–12 · replay 71% for the winner
- Jets at Jaguars NYJ 32–25 · replay 74% for the winner
- Commanders at Saints WAS 20–19 · replay 54% for the winner
- Bills at Lions BUF 48–42 · replay 90% for the winner
- Colts at Broncos DEN 31–13 · replay 48% for the winner
- Patriots at Cardinals ARI 30–17 · replay 78% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Chargers TB 40–17 · replay 94% for the winner
- Packers at Seahawks GB 30–13 · replay 96% for the winner
- Bears at Vikings MIN 30–12 · replay 84% for the winner
- Falcons at Raiders ATL 15–9 · replay 86% for the winner