luckadjusted

2024 NFL season · November 28, 2024–December 2

Week 13 2024: who deserved to win

5 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Chargers beat the Falcons 17–13 in a game they win 23% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 13 2024 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 3 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Steelers 44–38 @ Bengals 41% 68% Deserved
Eagles 24–19 @ Ravens 41% 37% Lucky
Seahawks 26–21 @ Jets 47% 77% Deserved

Week 13 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Chargers W 17–13 @ Falcons 23% +77
2 Colts W 25–24 @ Patriots 34% +66
3 Eagles W 24–19 @ Ravens 37% +63
4 Vikings W 23–22 vs Cardinals 38% +62
5 Chiefs W 19–17 vs Raiders 47% +53
6 Steelers W 44–38 @ Bengals 68% +32
7 Cowboys W 27–20 vs Giants 70% +30
8 Broncos W 41–32 vs Browns 71% +29
9 Rams W 21–14 @ Saints 75% +25
10 Seahawks W 26–21 @ Jets 77% +23
11 Buccaneers W 26–23 @ Panthers 78% +22
12 Texans W 23–20 @ Jaguars 81% +19
13 Lions W 23–20 vs Bears 86% +14
14 Packers W 30–17 vs Dolphins 90% +10
15 Bills W 35–10 vs 49ers 95% +5
16 Commanders W 42–19 vs Titans 100% 0
17 Titans L 19–42 @ Commanders 0% 0
18 49ers L 10–35 @ Bills 5% −5
19 Dolphins L 17–30 @ Packers 10% −10
20 Bears L 20–23 @ Lions 14% −14
21 Jaguars L 20–23 vs Texans 19% −19
22 Panthers L 23–26 vs Buccaneers 22% −22
23 Jets L 21–26 vs Seahawks 23% −23
24 Saints L 14–21 vs Rams 25% −25
25 Browns L 32–41 @ Broncos 29% −29
26 Giants L 20–27 @ Cowboys 30% −30
27 Bengals L 38–44 vs Steelers 32% −32
28 Raiders L 17–19 @ Chiefs 53% −53
29 Cardinals L 22–23 @ Vikings 62% −62
30 Ravens L 19–24 vs Eagles 63% −63
31 Patriots L 24–25 vs Colts 66% −66
32 Falcons L 13–17 vs Chargers 77% −77