Week 13 2024 · November 29, 2024
Raiders at Chiefs, Week 13 2024: who deserved to win?
The Chiefs beat the Raiders 19–17, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Chiefs win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 40 points of win probability to the Chiefs.
The Chiefs won on an off day: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 80% of the time; with this day’s form, 47%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Chiefs were 84% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 2:21 left): D. Carlson missed 58-yard field goal, worth 26 points of win probability to the Chiefs. The biggest single swing (Q4, 0:15 left): the Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 3.
Final
 Las Vegas Raiders | 17 |
|---|---|
 Kansas City Chiefs | 19 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +53 Chiefs lucky · −53 Raiders
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Raiders win 5, Chiefs win 5.
- 1 LV 38 KC 13
- 2 LV 38 KC 23
- 3 LV 37 KC 26
- 4 LV 37 KC 31
- 5 LV 38 KC 36
- 6 LV 18 KC 20
- 7 LV 13 KC 18
- 8 LV 10 KC 20
- 9 LV 24 KC 37
- 10 LV 14 KC 36
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Chiefs won on an off day
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 80% of the time; with this day’s form, 47%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
33 points apart for the Chiefs: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders offenseEPA per play gained | +0.11 | +0.00 | better by 0.11 |
| Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.04 | +0.09 | better by 0.13 |
| Chiefs offenseEPA per play gained | −0.04 | +0.15 | worse by 0.19 |
| Chiefs defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.11 | +0.05 | worse by 0.06 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Raiders win 53% of them, Chiefs 47%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Raiders by 17+ | 13.1% |
| Raiders by 9–16 | 15.3% |
| Raiders by 1–8 | 20.6% |
| Level after regulation | 5.3% |
| Chiefs by 1–8 | 19.8% |
| Chiefs by 9–16 | 13.8% |
| Chiefs by 17+ | 12.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Wright, 25 yds made · 98% expected
- D. Carlson, 27 yds made · 98% expected
- D. Carlson, 56 yds missed · 62% expected
- M. Wright, 59 yds missed · 55% expected
- M. Wright, 42 yds made · 83% expected
- D. Carlson, 55 yds missed · 63% expected
- M. Wright, 35 yds made · 92% expected
- M. Wright, 32 yds made · 94% expected
- D. Carlson, 58 yds missed · 58% expected
Penalties: Raiders 9 for 101 yards, Chiefs 7 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:03 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Jack Jones), 20 yards | +5% KC +1.6 pts |
| Q1 8:08 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards | +4% KC +1.6 pts |
| Q1 6:50 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards | +4% KC +0.6 pts |
| Q1 4:03 | Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards | +1% LV +1.1 pts |
| Q1 3:00 | False Start on the Chiefs (Mecole Hardman), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LV +0.9 pts |
| Q1 2:37 | False Start on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LV +0.6 pts |
| Q2 13:37 | False Start on the Raiders (Brock Bowers), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KC +0.9 pts |
| Q2 6:50 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Raiders, 5 yards | +6% KC +0.8 pts |
| Q2 1:06 | Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Raiders, 5 yards | +1% KC +0.5 pts |
| Q3 6:32 | Defensive Offside on the Chiefs (Chris Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LV +0.4 pts |
| Q3 2:16 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% KC +2.1 pts |
| Q4 12:48 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Decamerion Richardson), 26 yards | +10% KC +1.9 pts |
| Q4 12:41 | False Start on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LV +0.7 pts |
| Q4 12:37 | Illegal Formation on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LV +0.5 pts |
| Q4 9:53 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Raiders (Justin Shorter), 10 yards | +2% KC +0.9 pts |
| Q4 1:56 | Defensive Offside on the Chiefs (Chris Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% LV +0.1 pts |
Raiders penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Chiefs’ chance of winning
As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 15:00 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +16% LV | LV: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 6:00 | D. Carlson missed 56-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 47 of 59 from 45+ before | +11% KC | LV: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 5:18 | The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +8% KC | LV: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q3 0:25 | The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedD. Hopkins dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 203 catchable balls before this | +10% LV | KC: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 12:48 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Decamerion Richardson), 26 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 231 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 | +10% KC | KC: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 10:36 | The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +12% LV | KC: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 2:21 | The game turned hereD. Carlson missed 58-yard field goalKicks · 58% expected for him, 47 of 61 from 45+ before | +26% KC | LV: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 0:15 | The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expectedThe Raiders fumbled and the Chiefs recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +63% KC | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jaylen Watson (KC CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Harrison Butker (KC K), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Spencer Shrader (KC K), out · 0.3 pts
- Nate Hobbs (LV CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Christian Wilkins (LV DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Jakorian Bennett (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Alexander Mattison (LV RB), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Raiders 97% · Chiefs 3%
- Final margin
- Chiefs by 2
- Luck in points
- 16.7 for the Chiefs
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Raiders by 14.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Raiders 53% · Chiefs 47% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2024 games · 
Raiders · 
Chiefs
More from Week 13 2024
- Bears at Lions DET 23–20 · replay 86% for the winner
- Giants at Cowboys DAL 27–20 · replay 70% for the winner
- Dolphins at Packers GB 30–17 · replay 90% for the winner
- Cardinals at Vikings MIN 23–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- Texans at Jaguars HOU 23–20 · replay 81% for the winner
- Colts at Patriots IND 25–24 · replay 34% for the winner
- Chargers at Falcons LAC 17–13 · replay 23% for the winner
- Steelers at Bengals PIT 44–38 · replay 68% for the winner
- Seahawks at Jets SEA 26–21 · replay 77% for the winner
- Titans at Commanders WAS 42–19 · replay 100% for the winner
- Rams at Saints LA 21–14 · replay 75% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Panthers TB 26–23 · replay 78% for the winner
- Eagles at Ravens PHI 24–19 · replay 37% for the winner
- 49ers at Bills BUF 35–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- Browns at Broncos DEN 41–32 · replay 71% for the winner