luckadjusted

Week 13 2024 · November 28, 2024

Dolphins at Packers, Week 13 2024: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Dolphins 30–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Packers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 13:40 left): the Dolphins fumbled and the Packers recovered, worth 10 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Miami Dolphins 17
Green Bay Packers 30

November 28, 2024 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −3.5

Luck index +10 Packers about even · −10 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 1, Packers win 9.

  1. 1 MIA 20 GB 14
  2. 2 MIA 13 GB 15
  3. 3 MIA 16 GB 20
  4. 4 MIA 17 GB 24
  5. 5 MIA 10 GB 20
  6. 6 MIA 20 GB 34
  7. 7 MIA 3 GB 20
  8. 8 MIA 3 GB 22
  9. 9 MIA 13 GB 38
  10. 10 MIA 10 GB 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 10% of them, Packers 90%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+0.4%
Dolphins by 9–162.0%
Dolphins by 1–85.8%
Level after regulation1.8%
Packers by 1–818.4%
Packers by 9–1622.7%
Packers by 17+49.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.1 points to the Packers: the final margin was Packers by 13, without the luck Packers by 7.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 33 yds made · 93% expected
  • B. McManus, 46 yds made · 74% expected
  • B. McManus, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • B. McManus, 33 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 10 for 75 yards, Packers 7 for 44 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:15 False Start on the Packers (Tucker Kraft), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIA +0.7 pts
Q1 12:00 False Start on the Dolphins (Jonnu Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.5 pts
Q1 10:57 Defensive Offside on the Packers (Rashan Gary), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% MIA +1.8 pts
Q1 10:29 False Start on the Dolphins (Julian Hill), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.4 pts
Q1 9:21 Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins (Jonnu Smith), 15 yards +3% GB +1.1 pts
Q2 11:18 Delay of Game on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.7 pts
Q2 11:06 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Packers (Tedarrell Slaton), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.8 pts
Q2 6:43 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins (Siran Neal), 5 yards +1% GB +0.3 pts
Q2 6:33 Defensive Offside on the Packers (Kingsley Enagbare), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.3 pts
Q2 5:36 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards +2% GB +1.0 pts
Q2 2:00 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.6 pts
Q3 13:26 Delay of Game on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.8 pts
Q3 7:35 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins (Tyreek Hill), 10 yards 0% GB +0.7 pts
Q4 15:00 Encroachment on the Packers (Devonte Wyatt), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.9 pts
Q4 8:53 Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Jalen Ramsey), 5 yards 0% GB +0.6 pts
Q4 5:25 Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers, 14 yards 0% MIA +1.3 pts
Q4 1:56 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% GB +1.3 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:40 The Dolphins fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% GB MIA: Punt
2 Q1 10:57 Defensive Offside on the Packers (Rashan Gary), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 10 flags in 3129 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +4% MIA MIA: Punt
3 Q1 9:21 Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins (Jonnu Smith), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 18 flags in 3786 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +3% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q1 6:30 D. Wicks dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 68 catchable balls before this +4% MIA GB: Touchdown
5 Q1 5:56 The Packers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +3% GB GB: Touchdown
6 Q1 2:25 The Packers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +4% GB GB: Touchdown
7 Q2 10:57 The Dolphins converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +6% MIA MIA: Field goal
8 Q2 0:27 The Dolphins were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +3% GB MIA: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Romeo Doubs (GB WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Edgerrin Cooper (GB LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Kendall Fuller (MIA CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Austin Jackson (MIA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Anthony Walker (MIA LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tyus Bowser (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 7% · Packers 93%

Final margin
Packers by 13
Luck in points
5.1 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 7.9
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 10% · Packers 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2024 games · Dolphins · Packers

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