luckadjusted

Week 13 2024 · December 1, 2024

Seahawks at Jets, Week 13 2024: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Jets 26–21 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: drops alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Jets.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 13:06 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Davante Adams), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 23 points of win probability to the Seahawks. The biggest single swing (Q2, 7:53 left): Return touchdown by the Seahawks.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 26
New York Jets 21

December 1, 2024 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Jets −1

Luck index +23 Seahawks about even · −23 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 8, Jets win 2.

  1. 1 SEA 38 NYJ 10
  2. 2 SEA 31 NYJ 12
  3. 3 SEA 37 NYJ 23
  4. 4 SEA 24 NYJ 12
  5. 5 SEA 27 NYJ 17
  6. 6 SEA 14 NYJ 7
  7. 7 SEA 17 NYJ 13
  8. 8 SEA 17 NYJ 16
  9. 9 SEA 7 NYJ 10
  10. 10 SEA 10 NYJ 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 77% of them, Jets 23%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+24.3%
Seahawks by 9–1623.1%
Seahawks by 1–826.4%
Level after regulation4.5%
Jets by 1–813.8%
Jets by 9–165.3%
Jets by 17+2.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.6 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Seahawks by 5, without the luck Seahawks by 3.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 54 yds made · 58% expected
  • J. Myers, 43 yds made · 78% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 5 for 50 yards, Jets 12 for 83 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:29 Face Mask on the Seahawks (Leonard Williams), 15 yards, wiping out the play +8% NYJ +3.0 pts
Q1 5:29 False Start on the Jets (Garrett Wilson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA +0.6 pts
Q1 1:41 Defensive Holding on the Jets (D.J. Reed), 5 yards +1% SEA +0.8 pts
Q3 11:39 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +12% NYJ +3.5 pts
Q3 6:45 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Chuck Clark), 2 yards +6% SEA +1.3 pts
Q3 6:05 Defensive Offside on the Jets, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +0.1 pts
Q3 5:28 Defensive Offside on the Seahawks, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.2 pts
Q3 4:25 Roughing the Passer on the Seahawks (Dre'Mont Jones), 15 yards +2% NYJ +1.3 pts
Q3 3:52 Illegal Formation on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +1.2 pts
Q3 0:34 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYJ +1.2 pts
Q4 13:06 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Davante Adams), 10 yards, wiping out the play +23% SEA +5.5 pts
Q4 12:29 Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.4 pts
Q4 9:34 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SEA +0.9 pts
Q4 9:18 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Qwan'tez Stiggers), 20 yards +15% SEA +2.9 pts
Q4 7:07 Horse Collar Tackle on the Jets (Solomon Thomas), 16 yards +16% SEA +2.0 pts
Q4 5:40 Defensive Offside on the Jets (Will McDonald), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +25% SEA +3.2 pts
Q4 4:33 Illegal Shift on the Jets, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +12% SEA +1.5 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 94%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 7:53 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedThe Jets threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the SeahawksSpecial teams +27% SEA NYJ: Turnover on downs
2 Q3 5:32 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +14% NYJ SEA: Field goal
3 Q3 0:16 The Seahawks converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +19% SEA SEA: Field goal
4 Q4 13:06 The game turned hereOffensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Davante Adams), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 10 flags in 5106 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +23% SEA SEA: Touchdown
5 Q4 9:18 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Qwan'tez Stiggers), 20 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 157 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +15% SEA SEA: Touchdown
6 Q4 7:07 Horse Collar Tackle on the Jets (Solomon Thomas), 16 yardsJudgment calls · 14 flags in 2621 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +16% SEA SEA: Touchdown
7 Q4 5:40 Defensive Offside on the Jets (Will McDonald), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 773 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +25% SEA SEA: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:38 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 153rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +14% SEA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyron Smith (NYJ T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Allen Lazard (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Greg Zuerlein (NYJ K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Stone Forsythe (SEA T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Anthony Bradford (SEA G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 64% · Jets 36%

Final margin
Seahawks by 5
Luck in points
1.6 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 3.4
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 77% · Jets 23% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2024 games · Seahawks · Jets

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