luckadjusted

Week 3 2024 · September 22, 2024

Lions at Cardinals, Week 3 2024: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Cardinals 20–13 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Lions were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:06 left): Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Elijah Higgins), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 11 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Detroit Lions 20
Arizona Cardinals 13

September 22, 2024 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Lions −3

Luck index +25 Lions lucky · −25 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 7, Cardinals win 3.

  1. 1 DET 38 ARI 10
  2. 2 DET 51 ARI 32
  3. 3 DET 25 ARI 10
  4. 4 DET 24 ARI 14
  5. 5 DET 24 ARI 17
  6. 6 DET 30 ARI 26
  7. 7 DET 26 ARI 24
  8. 8 DET 17 ARI 19
  9. 9 DET 17 ARI 25
  10. 10 DET 16 ARI 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 75% of them, Cardinals 25%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+23.9%
Lions by 9–1621.9%
Lions by 1–826.7%
Level after regulation3.9%
Cardinals by 1–814.4%
Cardinals by 9–166.3%
Cardinals by 17+2.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.3 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Lions by 7, without the luck Lions by 7.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • M. Prater, 45 yds made · 84% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lions 9 for 79 yards, Cardinals 4 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:14 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% DET +1.7 pts
Q1 5:18 Illegal Use of Hands on the Lions (Marcus Davenport), 5 yards +2% ARI +0.5 pts
Q1 1:51 False Start on the Lions (Sam LaPorta), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.9 pts
Q2 7:14 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cardinals (Kei'Trel Clark), 10 yards +2% DET +0.9 pts
Q2 7:06 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Elijah Higgins), 5 yards, wiping out the play +11% DET +3.2 pts
Q2 5:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Terrion Arnold), 14 yards +6% ARI +1.3 pts
Q2 2:20 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARI +0.5 pts
Q2 0:29 Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions (Jalen Reeves-Maybin), 15 yards +4% ARI +2.4 pts
Q3 13:36 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Carlton Davis), 10 yards +3% ARI +1.4 pts
Q3 10:54 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +1.1 pts
Q4 12:45 Roughing the Passer on the Lions (Josh Paschal), 15 yards +2% ARI +1.0 pts
Q4 12:00 False Start on the Cardinals (Tip Reiman), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +0.6 pts
Q4 3:02 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.5 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:22 The Lions converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% DET DET: Touchdown
2 Q2 7:06 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Elijah Higgins), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 378 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +11% DET DET: Touchdown
3 Q2 5:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Terrion Arnold), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 120 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +6% ARI ARI: Punt
4 Q2 2:00 The Lions converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% DET DET: Touchdown
5 Q3 8:10 The Lions threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% ARI DET: Turnover on downs
6 Q3 6:48 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +6% DET ARI: Turnover on downs
7 Q3 6:06 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +8% DET ARI: Punt
8 Q4 2:20 The Lions converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +6% DET DET: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ifeatu Melifonwu (DET CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Alex Anzalone (DET LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • John Cominsky (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 85% · Cardinals 15%

Final margin
Lions by 7
Luck in points
0.3 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 7.3
Replay with same day's form
Lions 75% · Cardinals 25% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2024 games · Lions · Cardinals

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