luckadjusted

Week 3 2024 · September 22, 2024

Texans at Vikings, Week 3 2024: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Texans 34–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 8 of 10.

An off day for the Texans: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 48% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Texans were 56% favorites.

Final

Houston Texans 7
Minnesota Vikings 34

September 22, 2024 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Texans −2

Luck index +16 Vikings about even · −16 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 2, Vikings win 8.

  1. 1 HOU 16 MIN 3
  2. 2 HOU 20 MIN 17
  3. 3 HOU 10 MIN 13
  4. 4 HOU 20 MIN 25
  5. 5 HOU 12 MIN 20
  6. 6 HOU 5 MIN 17
  7. 7 HOU 10 MIN 24
  8. 8 HOU 3 MIN 21
  9. 9 HOU 10 MIN 32
  10. 10 HOU 3 MIN 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Texans

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 48% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%.

32 points apart for the Texans: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Texans offenseEPA per play gained −0.10 +0.06 worse by 0.15
Texans defenseEPA per play allowed +0.17 +0.06 worse by 0.11
Vikings offenseEPA per play gained +0.17 +0.12 better by 0.05
Vikings defenseEPA per play allowed −0.10 +0.06 better by 0.15

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 16% of them, Vikings 84%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 27.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+1.3%
Texans by 9–164.3%
Texans by 1–810.1%
Level after regulation1.2%
Vikings by 1–824.4%
Vikings by 9–1622.2%
Vikings by 17+36.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 27, without the luck Vikings by 25.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 54 yds missed · 69% expected
  • W. Reichard, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • W. Reichard, 58 yds made · 62% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 11 for 88 yards, Vikings 5 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Cade Stover), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% MIN +2.6 pts
Q1 8:28 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.7 pts
Q1 0:37 Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% MIN +2.2 pts
Q2 14:12 Illegal Motion on the Vikings (Jalen Nailor), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% HOU +2.0 pts
Q2 13:49 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.5 pts
Q2 9:48 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIN +0.7 pts
Q2 9:29 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.9 pts
Q2 9:10 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.5 pts
Q2 6:18 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.8 pts
Q2 2:27 Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% MIN +1.9 pts
Q3 11:14 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Jalen Pitre), 28 yards +2% MIN +1.8 pts
Q3 6:47 Illegal Use of Hands on the Vikings (Jonathan Bullard), 5 yards +1% HOU +0.7 pts
Q3 3:56 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Texans, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN 0.0 pts
Q3 3:50 Roughing the Passer on the Texans (Danielle Hunter), 15 yards +1% MIN +3.0 pts
Q3 2:19 Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Aaron Jones), 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% HOU +10.7 pts
Q4 8:42 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.3 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Cade Stover), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 53 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +7% MIN MIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 14:35 The Texans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +4% MIN HOU: Missed field goal
3 Q1 13:05 The Vikings got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% MIN MIN: Touchdown
4 Q1 12:10 The Vikings converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +5% MIN MIN: Touchdown
5 Q1 10:38 The Texans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +4% HOU HOU: Missed field goal
6 Q1 6:51 The Texans converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +6% HOU HOU: Missed field goal
7 Q1 4:36 K. Fairbairn missed 54-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 36 of 51 from 45+ before +5% MIN HOU: Punt
8 Q3 2:19 Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Aaron Jones), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 3128 snaps before, position avg 1 per 860 +5% HOU HOU: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • T.J. Hockenson (MIN TE), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Jordan Addison (MIN WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Dalton Risner (MIN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Joe Mixon (HOU RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Harris (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jarrett Patterson (HOU C), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 1% · Vikings 99%

Final margin
Vikings by 27
Luck in points
1.9 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 25.1
Replay with same day's form
Texans 16% · Vikings 84% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2024 games · Texans · Vikings

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