2023 season · final

Jacksonville Jaguars, 2023: game by game

The Jaguars went 9–8 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.7 wins. Luck cost them 0.7: the 11th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–4.

Every game

How often the Jaguars win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Colts	W 31–21	96%	+4
Week 2	vs Chiefs	L 9–17	45%	−45
Week 3	vs Texans	L 17–37	69%	−69
Week 4	vs Falcons	W 23–7	80%	+20
Week 5	@ Bills	W 25–20	14%	+86
Week 6	vs Colts	W 37–20	83%	+17
Week 7	@ Saints	W 31–24	86%	+14
Week 8	@ Steelers	W 20–10	92%	+8
Week 10	vs 49ers	L 3–34	5%	−5
Week 11	vs Titans	W 34–14	74%	+26
Week 12	@ Texans	W 24–21	62%	+38
Week 13	vs Bengals	L 31–34	38%	−38
Week 14	@ Browns	L 27–31	41%	−41
Week 15	vs Ravens	L 7–23	4%	−4
Week 16	@ Buccaneers	L 12–30	19%	−19
Week 17	vs Panthers	W 26–0	95%	+5
Week 18	@ Titans	L 20–28	70%	−70

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +4 @ IND

Wk 2 −45 vs KC

Wk 3 −69 vs HOU

Wk 4 +20 vs ATL

Wk 5 +86 @ BUF

Wk 6 +17 vs IND

Wk 7 +14 @ NO

Wk 8 +8 @ PIT

Wk 10 −5 vs SF

Wk 11 +26 vs TEN

Wk 12 +38 @ HOU

Wk 13 −38 vs CIN

Wk 14 −41 @ CLE

Wk 15 −4 vs BAL

Wk 16 −19 @ TB

Wk 17 +5 vs CAR

Wk 18 −70 @ TEN

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Jaguars’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Judgment calls	+0.42	+43.5
Fumble bounces	+0.20	−1.6
Injuries	+0.10	+7.0
Kicks	−0.07	−1.4
Drops	−0.09	−3.2
3rd & 4th downs	−0.21	−1.8