luckadjusted

Week 3 2023 · September 24, 2023

Texans at Jaguars, Week 3 2023: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Jaguars 37–17, but the Jaguars played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 18 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 4:35 left): Return touchdown by the Texans, worth 14 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 37
Jacksonville Jaguars 17

September 24, 2023 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −7.5

Luck index +69 Texans very lucky · −69 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 3, Jaguars win 7.

  1. 1 HOU 33 JAX 17
  2. 2 HOU 30 JAX 23
  3. 3 HOU 23 JAX 20
  4. 4 HOU 21 JAX 23
  5. 5 HOU 10 JAX 13
  6. 6 HOU 10 JAX 17
  7. 7 HOU 20 JAX 30
  8. 8 HOU 3 JAX 17
  9. 9 HOU 10 JAX 27
  10. 10 HOU 10 JAX 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 31% of them, Jaguars 69%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+3.4%
Texans by 9–168.0%
Texans by 1–816.0%
Level after regulation4.3%
Jaguars by 1–826.2%
Jaguars by 9–1621.3%
Jaguars by 17+20.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.6 points to the Texans: the final margin was Texans by 20, without the luck Texans by 9.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 48 yds missed · 78% expected
  • B. McManus, 51 yds blocked · 72% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. McManus, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 33 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 8 for 75 yards, Jaguars 6 for 49 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:31 Fair Catch Interference on the Texans (Ka'dar Hollman), 15 yards +1% JAX +1.4 pts
Q1 6:56 False Start on the Jaguars (Calvin Ridley), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.7 pts
Q1 4:25 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.7 pts
Q2 9:14 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.6 pts
Q2 7:21 Defensive Offside on the Texans (Jerry Hughes), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.5 pts
Q2 5:10 Illegal Use of Hands on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% HOU +2.8 pts
Q2 4:55 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.5 pts
Q2 3:15 Encroachment on the Texans (Kurt Hinish), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.6 pts
Q2 2:59 False Start on the Jaguars (Calvin Ridley), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.5 pts
Q3 13:09 Illegal Formation on the Jaguars (Luke Farrell), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% HOU +1.6 pts
Q3 11:27 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Jimmie Ward), 25 yards +6% JAX +3.6 pts
Q3 11:27 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.8 pts
Q3 11:17 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Texans, 10 yards +2% JAX +0.9 pts
Q4 6:56 Intentional Grounding on the Jaguars (Trevor Lawrence), 19 yards +1% HOU +1.9 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:36 B. McManus missed 48-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him, 48 of 66 from 45+ before +9% HOU JAX: Punt
2 Q2 12:48 C. Ridley dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 15 catchable balls before this +5% HOU JAX: Missed field goal
3 Q2 12:02 B. McManus had a 51-yard field goal blockedKicks · 72% expected for him, 48 of 67 from 45+ before +9% HOU JAX: Punt
4 Q2 1:13 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedThe Jaguars fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% HOU JAX: Touchdown
5 Q3 9:30 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedN. Collins dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 54 catchable balls before this +8% JAX HOU: Punt
6 Q3 4:35 Return touchdown by the TexansSpecial teams +14% HOU HOU: Touchdown
7 Q3 2:28 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedThe Jaguars threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% HOU JAX: Touchdown
8 Q4 10:45 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +6% JAX JAX: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Zay Jones (JAX WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Dawuane Smoot (JAX DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Laremy Tunsil (HOU T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Tytus Howard (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jalen Pitre (HOU FS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tavierre Thomas (HOU CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Denzel Perryman (HOU LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Scott Quessenberry (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kenyon Green (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cameron Johnston (HOU P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 79% · Jaguars 21%

Final margin
Texans by 20
Luck in points
10.6 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 9.4
Replay with same day's form
Texans 31% · Jaguars 69% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2023 games · Texans · Jaguars

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