Week 3 2023 · September 24, 2023
Falcons at Lions, Week 3 2023: who deserved to win?
The Lions beat the Falcons 20–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 10 of 10. The Falcons had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Falcons.
An off day for the Falcons: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Lions they would win 33% of the time; with this day’s form, 2%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Lions were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:10 left): the Lions were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 8 points of win probability to the Falcons.
Final
 Atlanta Falcons | 6 |
|---|---|
 Detroit Lions | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Lions about even · −2 Falcons
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Falcons win 0, Lions win 10.
- 1 ATL 27 DET 30
- 2 ATL 17 DET 24
- 3 ATL 17 DET 27
- 4 ATL 13 DET 26
- 5 ATL 20 DET 36
- 6 ATL 0 DET 19
- 7 ATL 9 DET 30
- 8 ATL 3 DET 28
- 9 ATL 10 DET 40
- 10 ATL 0 DET 37
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Falcons
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Lions they would win 33% of the time; with this day’s form, 2%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
31 points apart for the Falcons: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons offenseEPA per play gained | −0.39 | +0.09 | worse by 0.48 |
| Falcons defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.12 | better by 0.10 |
| Lions offenseEPA per play gained | +0.02 | +0.13 | worse by 0.11 |
| Lions defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.39 | +0.15 | better by 0.53 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Falcons win 2% of them, Lions 98%. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Falcons by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 0.3% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 1.9% |
| Level after regulation | 0.4% |
| Lions by 1–8 | 5.4% |
| Lions by 9–16 | 14.7% |
| Lions by 17+ | 77.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- R. Patterson, 37 yds made · 92% expected
- Y. Koo, 48 yds made · 83% expected
- R. Patterson, 24 yds made · 99% expected
- Y. Koo, 47 yds missed · 85% expected
- Y. Koo, 24 yds made · 100% expected
Penalties: Falcons 4 for 24 yards, Lions 10 for 119 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:05 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards | +3% DET +0.9 pts |
| Q1 7:48 | Chop Block on the Lions, 15 yards | +4% ATL +1.6 pts |
| Q2 10:28 | Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Grady Jarrett), 5 yards | +2% DET +0.8 pts |
| Q2 3:23 | Illegal Contact on the Falcons (Jessie Bates III), 4 yards | +2% DET +3.9 pts |
| Q2 2:38 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards | +1% ATL +1.5 pts |
| Q2 1:04 | Offensive Holding on the Lions (Will Harris), 10 yards | +2% ATL +0.8 pts |
| Q3 12:17 | Horse Collar Tackle on the Lions (Brian Branch), 15 yards | +3% ATL +1.8 pts |
| Q3 6:35 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% ATL +1.6 pts |
| Q3 4:41 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Jerry Jacobs), 8 yards | +2% ATL +1.0 pts |
| Q3 3:39 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards | +2% ATL +1.4 pts |
| Q3 1:01 | Face Mask on the Lions (Will Harris), 15 yards | +3% ATL +1.2 pts |
| Q4 8:23 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Jerry Jacobs), 11 yards | +1% ATL +1.5 pts |
| Q4 5:15 | Delay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DET +0.7 pts |
| Q4 2:17 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions (Brian Branch), 15 yards | 0% ATL +1.8 pts |
Falcons penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2023
When it happened
Lions’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:07 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +8% ATL | ATL: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 11:41 | The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +4% DET | ATL: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 11:37 | Y. Koo made 48-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him, 38 of 45 from 45+ before | +5% ATL | ATL: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 10:45 | The Lions converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +8% DET | DET: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 9:12 | The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +4% DET | ATL: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q3 8:30 | Y. Koo missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him, 39 of 46 from 45+ before | +6% DET | ATL: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 0:10 | The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Lions threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +8% ATL | DET: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 13:50 | The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +5% DET | ATL: Turnover on downs |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Taylor Decker (DET T), out · 1.1 pts
- Kerby Joseph (DET SS), out · 0.9 pts
- Kerby Joseph (DET FS), out · 0.8 pts
- David Montgomery (DET RB), out · 0.4 pts
- Halapoulivaati Vaitai (DET G), out · 0.2 pts
- Matt Hennessy (ATL C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Adetokunbo Ogundeji (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Falcons 0% · Lions 100%
- Final margin
- Lions by 14
- Luck in points
- 9.2 for the Falcons
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Lions by 23.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Falcons 2% · Lions 98% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2023 games · 
Falcons · 
Lions
More from Week 3 2023
- Giants at 49ers SF 30–12 · replay 91% for the winner
- Bills at Commanders BUF 37–3 · replay 94% for the winner
- Broncos at Dolphins MIA 70–20 · replay 98% for the winner
- Texans at Jaguars HOU 37–17 · replay 31% for the winner
- Colts at Ravens IND 22–19 · replay 33% for the winner
- Chargers at Vikings LAC 28–24 · replay 48% for the winner
- Patriots at Jets NE 15–10 · replay 92% for the winner
- Saints at Packers GB 18–17 · replay 74% for the winner
- Titans at Browns CLE 27–3 · replay 96% for the winner
- Panthers at Seahawks SEA 37–27 · replay 86% for the winner
- Bears at Chiefs KC 41–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Cowboys at Cardinals ARI 28–16 · replay 64% for the winner
- Steelers at Raiders PIT 23–18 · replay 57% for the winner
- Eagles at Buccaneers PHI 25–11 · replay 95% for the winner
- Rams at Bengals CIN 19–16 · replay 31% for the winner