luckadjusted

Week 3 2023 · September 24, 2023

Patriots at Jets, Week 3 2023: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Jets 15–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 9 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 18 points of win probability to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:35 left): Offensive Holding on the Jets, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 15 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

New England Patriots 15
New York Jets 10

September 24, 2023 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −2.5

Luck index +8 Patriots about even · −8 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 9, Jets win 1.

  1. 1 NE 31 NYJ 0
  2. 2 NE 31 NYJ 6
  3. 3 NE 30 NYJ 10
  4. 4 NE 31 NYJ 14
  5. 5 NE 28 NYJ 14
  6. 6 NE 34 NYJ 23
  7. 7 NE 16 NYJ 7
  8. 8 NE 26 NYJ 20
  9. 9 NE 20 NYJ 18
  10. 10 NE 27 NYJ 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 92% of them, Jets 8%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+55.5%
Patriots by 9–1619.7%
Patriots by 1–815.9%
Level after regulation1.4%
Jets by 1–85.2%
Jets by 9–161.8%
Jets by 17+0.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.9 points to the Jets: the final margin was Patriots by 5, without the luck Patriots by 13.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Ryland, 48 yds made · 71% expected
  • C. Ryland, 48 yds missed · 72% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 52 yds made · 62% expected
  • C. Ryland, 57 yds missed · 55% expected
  • C. Ryland, 51 yds made · 64% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Patriots 6 for 43 yards, Jets 3 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:23 False Start on the Jets (Nick Bawden), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NE +0.2 pts
Q1 0:30 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards +2% NYJ +1.4 pts
Q3 7:26 Illegal Blindside Block on the Patriots (JuJu Smith-Schuster), 10 yards +2% NYJ +1.1 pts
Q3 5:48 False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.3 pts
Q3 5:36 False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.6 pts
Q3 2:31 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.7 pts
Q4 5:46 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.8 pts
Q4 5:36 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots, 8 yards +8% NYJ +2.6 pts
Q4 2:35 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 5 yards, wiping out the play +15% NE +1.4 pts

Patriots penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:41 The Patriots converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +11% NE NE: Field goal
2 Q2 14:56 C. Ryland missed 48-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 2 of 2 from 45+ before +8% NYJ NE: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:05 C. Ryland missed 57-yard field goalKicks · 55% expected for him, 2 of 3 from 45+ before +10% NYJ NE: Field goal
4 Q3 2:12 The Patriots converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +7% NE NE: Punt
5 Q4 5:36 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots, 8 yardsJudgment calls +8% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:35 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +15% NE NE: Punt
7 Q4 2:27 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +10% NE NYJ: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:26 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +12% NE NYJ: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Duane Brown (NYJ T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Marcus Jones (NE CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Jonathan Jones (NE CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tyquan Thornton (NE WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 97% · Jets 3%

Final margin
Patriots by 5
Luck in points
8.9 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 13.9
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 92% · Jets 8% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2023 games · Patriots · Jets

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