luckadjusted

2023 NFL season · September 21, 2023–September 25

Week 3 2023: who deserved to win

4 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Texans beat the Jaguars 37–17 in a game they win 31% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 3 2023 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Cardinals 28–16 vs Cowboys 20% 64% Deserved
Texans 37–17 @ Jaguars 29% 31% Lucky
Colts 22–19 @ Ravens 29% 33% Lucky
Steelers 23–18 @ Raiders 41% 57% Coin flip
Packers 18–17 vs Saints 46% 74% Deserved
Chargers 28–24 @ Vikings 47% 48% Coin flip

Week 3 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Texans W 37–17 @ Jaguars 31% +69
2 Bengals W 19–16 vs Rams 31% +69
3 Colts W 22–19 @ Ravens 33% +67
4 Chargers W 28–24 @ Vikings 48% +52
5 Steelers W 23–18 @ Raiders 57% +43
6 Cardinals W 28–16 vs Cowboys 64% +36
7 Packers W 18–17 vs Saints 74% +26
8 Seahawks W 37–27 vs Panthers 86% +14
9 49ers W 30–12 vs Giants 91% +9
10 Patriots W 15–10 @ Jets 92% +8
11 Bills W 37–3 @ Commanders 94% +6
12 Eagles W 25–11 @ Buccaneers 95% +5
13 Browns W 27–3 vs Titans 96% +4
14 Lions W 20–6 vs Falcons 98% +2
15 Dolphins W 70–20 vs Broncos 98% +2
16 Chiefs W 41–10 vs Bears 99% +1
17 Bears L 10–41 @ Chiefs 1% −1
18 Broncos L 20–70 @ Dolphins 2% −2
19 Falcons L 6–20 @ Lions 2% −2
20 Titans L 3–27 @ Browns 4% −4
21 Buccaneers L 11–25 vs Eagles 5% −5
22 Commanders L 3–37 vs Bills 6% −6
23 Jets L 10–15 vs Patriots 8% −8
24 Giants L 12–30 @ 49ers 9% −9
25 Panthers L 27–37 @ Seahawks 14% −14
26 Saints L 17–18 @ Packers 26% −26
27 Cowboys L 16–28 @ Cardinals 36% −36
28 Raiders L 18–23 vs Steelers 43% −43
29 Vikings L 24–28 vs Chargers 52% −52
30 Ravens L 19–22 vs Colts 67% −67
31 Rams L 16–19 @ Bengals 69% −69
32 Jaguars L 17–37 vs Texans 69% −69