luckadjusted

Week 3 2023 · September 24, 2023

Saints at Packers, Week 3 2023: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Saints 18–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Saints had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Saints.

Before kickoff the Saints were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:10 left): B. Grupe missed 46-yard field goal, worth 37 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

New Orleans Saints 17
Green Bay Packers 18

September 24, 2023 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Saints −1.5

Luck index +26 Packers lucky · −26 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 3, Packers win 7.

  1. 1 NO 32 GB 15
  2. 2 NO 21 GB 13
  3. 3 NO 26 GB 23
  4. 4 NO 14 GB 16
  5. 5 NO 17 GB 22
  6. 6 NO 16 GB 24
  7. 7 NO 14 GB 25
  8. 8 NO 22 GB 38
  9. 9 NO 14 GB 33
  10. 10 NO 6 GB 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 26% of them, Packers 74%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+3.4%
Saints by 9–167.3%
Saints by 1–815.3%
Level after regulation3.5%
Packers by 1–824.2%
Packers by 9–1621.2%
Packers by 17+25.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.0 points to the Packers: the final margin was Packers by 1, without the luck Saints by 1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Grupe, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • A. Carlson, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • B. Grupe, 46 yds missed · 77% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Saints 7 for 102 yards, Packers 11 for 90 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:41 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% NO +1.4 pts
Q1 13:18 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.3 pts
Q1 10:44 Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Kenny Clark), 15 yards +5% NO +1.8 pts
Q1 3:49 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.5 pts
Q1 0:51 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% GB +1.9 pts
Q2 14:28 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards +3% NO +0.9 pts
Q2 11:27 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Jayden Reed), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% NO +2.0 pts
Q2 8:05 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Bryan Bresee), 5 yards +2% GB +1.1 pts
Q2 6:51 Illegal Formation on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +0.8 pts
Q3 13:48 False Start on the Packers (Luke Musgrave), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +1.0 pts
Q3 10:17 Offensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Samori Toure), 5 yards +1% NO +1.0 pts
Q3 6:26 Delay of Game on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.8 pts
Q4 12:56 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Rasul Douglas), 10 yards +1% NO +0.7 pts
Q4 10:19 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Michael Thomas), 10 yards 0% GB +0.7 pts
Q4 8:27 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Alontae Taylor), 45 yards +3% GB +2.5 pts
Q4 8:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Isaac Yiadom), 22 yards +1% GB +1.4 pts
Q4 6:16 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.7 pts
Q4 5:31 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Kingsley Enagbare), 10 yards +2% NO +0.7 pts

Saints penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 2% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:51 The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +6% GB GB: Punt
2 Q1 0:51 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% GB GB: Opp touchdown
3 Q2 11:27 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Jayden Reed), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 66 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +7% NO NO: Opp touchdown
4 Q2 10:47 Return touchdown by the SaintsSpecial teams +15% NO NO: Opp touchdown
5 Q2 4:59 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% NO GB: Punt
6 Q4 5:00 J. Reed dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 13 catchable balls before this +7% NO GB: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:59 The Packers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +15% GB GB: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:10 B. Grupe missed 46-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before +37% GB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • David Bakhtiari (GB T), out · 1.3 pts
  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Christian Watson (GB WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Elgton Jenkins (GB G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Paulson Adebo (NO CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Alvin Kamara (NO RB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NO FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 65% · Packers 35%

Final margin
Packers by 1
Luck in points
2.0 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 1.0
Replay with same day's form
Saints 26% · Packers 74% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2023 games · Saints · Packers

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