Week 3 2023 · September 24, 2023
Cowboys at Cardinals, Week 3 2023: who deserved to win?
The Cardinals beat the Cowboys 28–16 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10.
An off day for the Cowboys: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 74% of the time; with this day’s form, 36%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Cowboys were 80% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:52 left): B. Aubrey made 49-yard field goal, worth 9 points of win probability to the Cowboys.
Final
 Dallas Cowboys | 16 |
|---|---|
 Arizona Cardinals | 28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +36 Cardinals lucky · −36 Cowboys
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cowboys win 4, Cardinals win 6.
- 1 DAL 35 ARI 16
- 2 DAL 20 ARI 10
- 3 DAL 21 ARI 16
- 4 DAL 12 ARI 9
- 5 DAL 14 ARI 17
- 6 DAL 31 ARI 36
- 7 DAL 3 ARI 10
- 8 DAL 19 ARI 30
- 9 DAL 16 ARI 31
- 10 DAL 17 ARI 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Cowboys
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 74% of the time; with this day’s form, 36%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
38 points apart for the Cowboys: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained | +0.12 | +0.12 | better by 0.00 |
| Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.22 | +0.06 | worse by 0.17 |
| Cardinals offenseEPA per play gained | +0.22 | +0.03 | better by 0.20 |
| Cardinals defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.12 | +0.12 | worse by 0.00 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cowboys win 36% of them, Cardinals 64%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 12.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cowboys by 17+ | 4.0% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 11.1% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 20.4% |
| Level after regulation | 3.0% |
| Cardinals by 1–8 | 29.8% |
| Cardinals by 9–16 | 17.7% |
| Cardinals by 17+ | 13.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Prater, 39 yds made · 88% expected
- B. Aubrey, 49 yds made · 73% expected
- M. Prater, 43 yds made · 82% expected
- M. Prater, 62 yds made · 52% expected
- B. Aubrey, 27 yds made · 98% expected
- B. Aubrey, 26 yds made · 98% expected
Penalties: Cowboys 13 for 107 yards, Cardinals 8 for 69 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:34 | False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ARI +0.9 pts |
| Q1 11:07 | Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARI +0.5 pts |
| Q1 10:16 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cardinals (Christian Matthew), 10 yards | +2% DAL +0.9 pts |
| Q1 9:07 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (DaRon Bland), 22 yards | +5% ARI +1.7 pts |
| Q1 6:12 | Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Osa Odighizuwa), 1 yard · pre-snap | +1% ARI 0.0 pts |
| Q1 4:30 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Jalen Thompson), 10 yards | +4% DAL +1.3 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards | +2% DAL +0.9 pts |
| Q2 13:23 | Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Jourdan Lewis), 5 yards | +6% ARI +2.2 pts |
| Q2 9:06 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards | +4% ARI +1.9 pts |
| Q2 6:10 | False Start on the Cowboys, 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARI +0.5 pts |
| Q2 5:32 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards | +2% DAL +1.1 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Defensive Offside on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +7% ARI +2.1 pts |
| Q2 1:50 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cardinals, 5 yards | +1% DAL +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:02 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% ARI +1.6 pts |
| Q2 0:20 | Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Dante Fowler), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARI +0.1 pts |
| Q3 8:07 | False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DAL +1.0 pts |
| Q3 7:34 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Devin Harper), 10 yards | +2% ARI +0.8 pts |
| Q3 3:51 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards | +3% ARI +0.8 pts |
| Q4 14:15 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Kei'Trel Clark), 14 yards | +5% DAL +2.4 pts |
| Q4 6:24 | Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Ben Stille), 5 yards | +1% DAL +0.9 pts |
| Q4 2:44 | Face Mask on the Cowboys (Johnathan Hankins), 15 yards | 0% ARI +1.2 pts |
Cowboys penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2023
When it happened
Cardinals’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 1:52 | B. Aubrey made 49-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before | +9% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 2:00 | Defensive Offside on the Cowboys, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +7% ARI | ARI: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 1:31 | M. Prater made 43-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him | +7% ARI | ARI: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 3:03 | The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +8% ARI | DAL: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 0:17 | The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +6% DAL | ARI: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 11:50 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +7% DAL | DAL: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 7:27 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +6% ARI | ARI: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 3:05 | The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Cowboys threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +6% ARI | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Kyler Murray (ARI QB), out (IR), replaced by j.dobbs · 3.6 pts
- Budda Baker (ARI SS), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
- Tyron Smith (DAL T), out · 1.2 pts
- Zack Martin (DAL G), out · 0.8 pts
- Tyler Biadasz (DAL C), out · 0.7 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cowboys 16% · Cardinals 84%
- Final margin
- Cardinals by 12
- Luck in points
- 4.1 for the Cardinals
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cardinals by 7.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Cowboys 36% · Cardinals 64% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2023 games · 
Cowboys · 
Cardinals
More from Week 3 2023
- Giants at 49ers SF 30–12 · replay 91% for the winner
- Falcons at Lions DET 20–6 · replay 98% for the winner
- Bills at Commanders BUF 37–3 · replay 94% for the winner
- Broncos at Dolphins MIA 70–20 · replay 98% for the winner
- Texans at Jaguars HOU 37–17 · replay 31% for the winner
- Colts at Ravens IND 22–19 · replay 33% for the winner
- Chargers at Vikings LAC 28–24 · replay 48% for the winner
- Patriots at Jets NE 15–10 · replay 92% for the winner
- Saints at Packers GB 18–17 · replay 74% for the winner
- Titans at Browns CLE 27–3 · replay 96% for the winner
- Panthers at Seahawks SEA 37–27 · replay 86% for the winner
- Bears at Chiefs KC 41–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Steelers at Raiders PIT 23–18 · replay 57% for the winner
- Eagles at Buccaneers PHI 25–11 · replay 95% for the winner
- Rams at Bengals CIN 19–16 · replay 31% for the winner