2023 season · final
Dallas Cowboys, 2023: game by game
The Cowboys went 12–5 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 11.0 wins. Luck added 1.0: the 10th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–2.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.3.
Every game
How often the Cowboys win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Giants | W 40–0 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | vs Jets | W 30–10 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 3 | @ Cardinals | L 16–28 | 36% | −36 |
| Week 4 | vs Patriots | W 38–3 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 5 | @ 49ers | L 10–42 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 6 | @ Chargers | W 20–17 | 57% | +43 |
| Week 8 | vs Rams | W 43–20 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 9 | @ Eagles | L 23–28 | 46% | −46 |
| Week 10 | vs Giants | W 49–17 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 11 | @ Panthers | W 33–10 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 12 | vs Commanders | W 45–10 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 13 | vs Seahawks | W 41–35 | 69% | +31 |
| Week 14 | vs Eagles | W 33–13 | 74% | +26 |
| Week 15 | @ Bills | L 10–31 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 16 | @ Dolphins | L 20–22 | 30% | −30 |
| Week 17 | vs Lions | W 20–19 | 39% | +61 |
| Week 18 | @ Commanders | W 38–10 | 99% | +1 |
| Wild Card | vs Packers | L 32–48 | 34% | −34 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Cowboys’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +1.16 | +10.9 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.36 | +19.4 |
| Injuries | −0.04 | +0.8 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.10 | +1.6 |
| Kicks | −0.11 | +9.3 |
| Drops | −0.31 | +0.5 |