luckadjusted

Week 13 2023 · November 30, 2023

Seahawks at Cowboys, Week 13 2023: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Seahawks 41–35 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:37 left): the Seahawks converted 3rd & 8, worth 24 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 35
Dallas Cowboys 41

November 30, 2023 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −9.5

Luck index +31 Cowboys lucky · −31 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 3, Cowboys win 7.

  1. 1 SEA 37 DAL 20
  2. 2 SEA 45 DAL 37
  3. 3 SEA 26 DAL 23
  4. 4 SEA 42 DAL 44
  5. 5 SEA 16 DAL 20
  6. 6 SEA 34 DAL 41
  7. 7 SEA 17 DAL 27
  8. 8 SEA 17 DAL 31
  9. 9 SEA 6 DAL 24
  10. 10 SEA 16 DAL 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 31% of them, Cowboys 69%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+4.3%
Seahawks by 9–168.0%
Seahawks by 1–814.9%
Level after regulation3.9%
Cowboys by 1–825.6%
Cowboys by 9–1619.2%
Cowboys by 17+24.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 6, without the luck Cowboys by 4.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 30 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Myers, 42 yds missed · 87% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 31 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 38 yds made · 92% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 32 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 10 for 130 yards, Cowboys 9 for 127 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:56 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.8 pts
Q1 5:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 47 yards +11% DAL +2.6 pts
Q1 1:01 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 6 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.4 pts
Q2 11:52 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cowboys, 5 yards +2% SEA +0.8 pts
Q2 9:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Rashaan Evans), 40 yards +5% SEA +1.7 pts
Q2 9:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Stephon Gilmore), 13 yards +8% SEA +2.9 pts
Q2 1:40 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play +19% SEA +4.2 pts
Q2 1:33 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks, 15 yards +5% DAL +1.4 pts
Q2 0:41 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Dorance Armstrong Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.7 pts
Q2 0:33 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Dante Fowler), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.3 pts
Q2 0:13 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (DaRon Bland), 29 yards, wiping out the play +12% DAL +2.3 pts
Q3 12:26 Face Mask on the Cowboys (Markquese Bell), 15 yards +4% SEA +1.8 pts
Q3 10:01 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Tre Brown), 5 yards +1% DAL +0.2 pts
Q3 7:51 Defensive Offside on the Seahawks (Boye Mafe), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +18% DAL +5.6 pts
Q3 7:43 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 5 yards 0% SEA +0.1 pts
Q3 6:12 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Bobby Wagner), 2 yards +2% DAL +0.9 pts
Q3 5:24 Illegal Contact on the Seahawks (Tre Brown), 5 yards +2% DAL +1.0 pts
Q4 13:45 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 35 yards +6% DAL +2.0 pts
Q4 4:41 Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% SEA +0.8 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 18% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:37 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +24% SEA SEA: Touchdown
2 Q1 1:01 J. Myers missed 42-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for himDelay of Game on the Seahawks, 6 yardsPre-snap flags +13% DAL SEA: Touchdown
3 Q2 1:40 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +19% SEA SEA: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:13 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (DaRon Bland), 29 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1551 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +12% DAL SEA: Touchdown
5 Q3 7:51 Defensive Offside on the Seahawks (Boye Mafe), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 1043 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +18% DAL DAL: Touchdown
6 Q3 3:02 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedThe Seahawks threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +22% DAL SEA: Touchdown
7 Q3 1:08 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expectedC. Lamb dropped a catchable passDrops · 8 drops on 229 catchable balls before this +18% SEA DAL: Field goal
8 Q4 7:08 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +11% DAL SEA: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Leighton Vander Esch (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Phil Haynes (SEA G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Uchenna Nwosu (SEA LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 31% · Cowboys 69%

Final margin
Cowboys by 6
Luck in points
1.5 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 4.5
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 31% · Cowboys 69% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2023 games · Seahawks · Cowboys

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