luckadjusted

Week 13 2023 · December 3, 2023

Colts at Titans, Week 13 2023: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Titans 31–28 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Colts were 54% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (QOT, 4:24 left): N. Folk made 46-yard field goal, worth 17 points of win probability to the Colts. The biggest single swing (Q4, 0:13 left): the Colts got away with an interception-worthy throw.

Final (OT)

Indianapolis Colts 31
Tennessee Titans 28

December 3, 2023 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Colts −1.5

Luck index +22 Colts about even · −22 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 8, Titans win 2.

  1. 1 IND 44 TEN 13
  2. 2 IND 33 TEN 10
  3. 3 IND 55 TEN 37
  4. 4 IND 39 TEN 24
  5. 5 IND 19 TEN 7
  6. 6 IND 16 TEN 7
  7. 7 IND 20 TEN 14
  8. 8 IND 22 TEN 20
  9. 9 IND 23 TEN 28
  10. 10 IND 10 TEN 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 78% of them, Titans 22%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+36.7%
Colts by 9–1619.2%
Colts by 1–821.1%
Level after regulation1.4%
Titans by 1–812.5%
Titans by 9–166.5%
Titans by 17+2.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.8 points to the Colts: the final margin was Colts by 3, without the luck Titans by 2.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 24 yds made · 100% expected
  • M. Gay, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Gay, 46 yds made · 77% expected
  • M. Gay, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Gay, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • N. Folk, 46 yds made · 78% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 4 for 29 yards, Titans 9 for 74 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:35 Taunting on the Titans (K'Von Wallace), 15 yards +3% IND +2.1 pts
Q1 8:50 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +3% IND +1.3 pts
Q1 8:40 Defensive Offside on the Colts (Dayo Odeyingbo), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.6 pts
Q1 4:30 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.5 pts
Q2 10:22 Defensive Holding on the Colts (E.J. Speed), 5 yards +1% TEN +0.3 pts
Q2 9:49 Face Mask on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 15 yards +4% IND +0.9 pts
Q2 3:06 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.7 pts
Q2 0:56 Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Titans, 5 yards 0% IND +0.5 pts
Q4 6:44 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +1.3 pts
QOT 8:36 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +11% IND +1.0 pts
QOT 8:11 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Jaylon Jones), 14 yards +17% TEN +1.7 pts
QOT 8:06 Defensive Offside on the Colts (Taven Bryan), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% TEN +0.4 pts
QOT 3:10 Illegal Contact on the Titans (Sean Murphy-Bunting), 4 yards, wiping out the play +13% IND +1.0 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 1:55 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedThe Colts fumbled and the Titans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% TEN IND: Field goal
2 Q3 0:26 Blocked punt by the ColtsSpecial teams +31% IND IND: Opp touchdown
3 Q4 2:39 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedC. Okonkwo dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 79 catchable balls before this +16% IND TEN: Punt
4 Q4 1:13 D. Hopkins dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 133 catchable balls before this +31% IND TEN: Punt
5 Q4 0:13 The Colts got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +40% IND IND: End of game
6 QOT 8:11 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Jaylon Jones), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 509 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +17% TEN TEN: Field goal
7 QOT 6:38 The Titans converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +14% TEN TEN: Field goal
8 QOT 4:24 The game turned hereN. Folk made 46-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him, 35 of 46 from 45+ before +17% IND –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nicholas Petit-Frere (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jonathan Taylor (IND RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Julius Brents (IND CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Grover Stewart (IND DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 30% · Titans 70%

Final margin
Colts by 3
Luck in points
5.8 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 2.8
Replay with same day's form
Colts 78% · Titans 22% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2023 games · Colts · Titans

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