luckadjusted

Week 13 2023 · December 3, 2023

Chiefs at Packers, Week 13 2023: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Chiefs 27–19, but the Chiefs played well enough to win it: they take 8 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Packers.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 6:56 left): the Packers converted 4th & 1, worth 11 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Kansas City Chiefs 19
Green Bay Packers 27

December 3, 2023 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Chiefs −5.5

Luck index +75 Packers very lucky · −75 Chiefs

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chiefs win 8, Packers win 2.

  1. 1 KC 28 GB 3
  2. 2 KC 33 GB 14
  3. 3 KC 31 GB 16
  4. 4 KC 26 GB 13
  5. 5 KC 30 GB 20
  6. 6 KC 23 GB 16
  7. 7 KC 20 GB 16
  8. 8 KC 41 GB 38
  9. 9 KC 14 GB 17
  10. 10 KC 3 GB 14

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chiefs win 75% of them, Packers 25%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chiefs by 17+22.5%
Chiefs by 9–1622.6%
Chiefs by 1–827.3%
Level after regulation4.8%
Packers by 1–815.3%
Packers by 9–165.5%
Packers by 17+1.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.3 points to the Packers: the final margin was Packers by 8, without the luck Packers by 5.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • H. Butker, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • A. Carlson, 40 yds made · 84% expected
  • A. Carlson, 48 yds made · 68% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chiefs 5 for 50 yards, Packers 7 for 63 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:11 Offensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Travis Kelce), 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% GB +1.4 pts
Q2 4:13 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards +3% GB +1.7 pts
Q2 0:32 False Start on the Packers (Jayden Reed), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KC +0.5 pts
Q3 14:25 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% GB +1.9 pts
Q3 13:58 Illegal Shift on the Chiefs, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% GB +1.2 pts
Q3 3:25 Defensive Offside on the Packers (Devonte Wyatt), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GB +0.5 pts
Q4 12:01 Delay of Game on the Packers, 6 yards · pre-snap +2% KC +0.7 pts
Q4 10:02 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards +2% KC +1.1 pts
Q4 5:23 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Corey Ballentine), 17 yards +3% KC +1.2 pts
Q4 1:09 Offside on Free Kick on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KC +0.5 pts
Q4 1:05 Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers, 15 yards +6% KC +1.8 pts
Q4 0:57 Disqualification on the Chiefs (Isiah Pacheco), 15 yards +11% GB +1.8 pts

Chiefs penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Chiefs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:30 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% KC KC: Field goal
2 Q3 14:25 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% GB GB: Touchdown
3 Q3 12:41 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +8% KC KC: Touchdown
4 Q3 9:39 The Chiefs’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +6% GB KC: Touchdown
5 Q3 6:56 The Packers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +11% GB GB: Touchdown
6 Q4 5:20 The Chiefs threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% GB KC: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 1:05 Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% KC KC: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:57 Disqualification on the Chiefs (Isiah Pacheco), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 1005 snaps before, position avg 1 per 870 +11% GB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Luke Musgrave (GB TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Nick Bolton (KC LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chiefs 19% · Packers 81%

Final margin
Packers by 8
Luck in points
2.3 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 5.7
Replay with same day's form
Chiefs 75% · Packers 25% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2023 games · Chiefs · Packers

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