Week 13 2023 · December 3, 2023
Falcons at Jets, Week 13 2023: who deserved to win?
The Falcons beat the Jets 13–8, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 9 of 10.
An off day for the Jets: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 43% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Falcons were 56% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q2, 3:32 left): Illegal Contact on the Jets (D.J. Reed), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 19 points of win probability to the Falcons.
Final
 Atlanta Falcons | 13 |
|---|---|
 New York Jets | 8 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Falcons about even · −6 Jets
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Falcons win 9, Jets win 1.
- 1 ATL 37 NYJ 6
- 2 ATL 35 NYJ 9
- 3 ATL 27 NYJ 6
- 4 ATL 34 NYJ 16
- 5 ATL 25 NYJ 10
- 6 ATL 16 NYJ 3
- 7 ATL 23 NYJ 13
- 8 ATL 10 NYJ 3
- 9 ATL 12 NYJ 9
- 10 ATL 3 NYJ 10
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Jets
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 43% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
37 points apart for the Jets: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons offenseEPA per play gained | −0.23 | +0.07 | worse by 0.30 |
| Falcons defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.17 | +0.11 | better by 0.28 |
| Jets offenseEPA per play gained | −0.17 | −0.04 | worse by 0.14 |
| Jets defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.23 | +0.05 | better by 0.28 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Falcons win 94% of them, Jets 6%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Falcons by 17+ | 60.9% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 22.1% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 10.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| Jets by 1–8 | 4.5% |
| Jets by 9–16 | 0.9% |
| Jets by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- G. Zuerlein, 27 yds made · 97% expected
- Y. Koo, 22 yds made · 100% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 46 yds made · 77% expected
- Y. Koo, 42 yds made · 85% expected
Penalties: Falcons 6 for 55 yards, Jets 11 for 71 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:06 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Tre Flowers), 10 yards | +3% NYJ +0.8 pts |
| Q2 13:19 | False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ATL +0.6 pts |
| Q2 3:56 | Intentional Grounding on the Falcons (Desmond Ridder), 10 yards | +3% NYJ +0.7 pts |
| Q2 3:49 | Defensive Offside on the Jets (Perrion Winfrey), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NYJ 0.0 pts |
| Q2 3:32 | Illegal Contact on the Jets (D.J. Reed), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +19% ATL +5.2 pts |
| Q2 1:56 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jets, 10 yards | +2% ATL +0.9 pts |
| Q2 1:46 | Offensive Holding on the Jets (Garrett Wilson), 6 yards | +2% ATL +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:24 | Lowering the Head to Make Forcible Contact on the Jets (Chazz Surratt), 15 yards | +5% ATL +1.5 pts |
| Q2 0:25 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Quincy Williams), 6 yards | +2% ATL +0.2 pts |
| Q2 0:12 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (D.J. Reed), 4 yards | +3% ATL +0.4 pts |
| Q3 12:20 | False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% ATL +0.7 pts |
| Q3 12:11 | False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ATL +0.3 pts |
| Q3 7:23 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Kyle Pitts), 10 yards | +1% NYJ +1.0 pts |
| Q3 3:33 | False Start on the Jets (Jeremy Ruckert), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ATL +0.9 pts |
| Q4 14:32 | False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NYJ +0.8 pts |
| Q4 11:53 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Falcons (Kaden Elliss), 15 yards | +7% NYJ +2.5 pts |
| Q4 1:43 | Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Clark Phillips), 5 yards | +1% NYJ +0.5 pts |
Falcons penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2023
When it happened
Jets’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:46 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +7% ATL | ATL: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 13:19 | The Jets fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50False Start on the Jets, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +10% ATL | NYJ: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 3:32 | The game turned hereIllegal Contact on the Jets (D.J. Reed), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 14 flags in 3872 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 | +19% ATL | ATL: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 13:01 | The Jets converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +11% NYJ | NYJ: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 2:54 | The Falcons fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% ATL | ATL: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 9:04 | The Jets fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +11% NYJ | NYJ: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 2:52 | The Jets fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% ATL | NYJ: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:51 | The Jets were stopped on 4th & 173rd & 4th downs · 13% expected | +7% ATL | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Connor McGovern (NYJ C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Grady Jarrett (ATL DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Falcons 60% · Jets 40%
- Final margin
- Falcons by 5
- Luck in points
- 2.5 for the Falcons
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Falcons by 2.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Falcons 94% · Jets 6% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2023 games · 
Falcons · 
Jets
More from Week 13 2023
- Seahawks at Cowboys DAL 41–35 · replay 69% for the winner
- Cardinals at Steelers ARI 24–10 · replay 42% for the winner
- Broncos at Texans HOU 22–17 · replay 39% for the winner
- Lions at Saints DET 33–28 · replay 67% for the winner
- Colts at Titans IND 31–28 · replay 78% for the winner
- Chargers at Patriots LAC 6–0 · replay 73% for the winner
- Dolphins at Commanders MIA 45–15 · replay 96% for the winner
- Panthers at Buccaneers TB 21–18 · replay 91% for the winner
- Browns at Rams LA 36–19 · replay 68% for the winner
- 49ers at Eagles SF 42–19 · replay 97% for the winner
- Chiefs at Packers GB 27–19 · replay 25% for the winner
- Bengals at Jaguars CIN 34–31 · replay 62% for the winner