luckadjusted

Week 13 2023 · December 4, 2023

Bengals at Jaguars, Week 13 2023: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Jaguars 34–31 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 28 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

An off day for the Jaguars: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 74% of the time; with this day’s form, 38%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 77% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (QOT, 6:19 left): Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 50 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final (OT)

Cincinnati Bengals 34
Jacksonville Jaguars 31

December 4, 2023 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −10

Luck index +38 Bengals lucky · −38 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 6, Jaguars win 4.

  1. 1 CIN 45 JAX 21
  2. 2 CIN 30 JAX 13
  3. 3 CIN 31 JAX 19
  4. 4 CIN 19 JAX 10
  5. 5 CIN 27 JAX 22
  6. 6 CIN 19 JAX 17
  7. 7 CIN 29 JAX 31
  8. 8 CIN 10 JAX 17
  9. 9 CIN 27 JAX 38
  10. 10 CIN 16 JAX 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Jaguars

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 74% of the time; with this day’s form, 38%.

36 points apart for the Jaguars: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Bengals offenseEPA per play gained +0.29 +0.11 better by 0.17
Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed +0.19 +0.11 worse by 0.08
Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained +0.19 +0.11 better by 0.08
Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed +0.29 +0.09 worse by 0.20

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 62% of them, Jaguars 38%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+19.1%
Bengals by 9–1618.6%
Bengals by 1–824.0%
Level after regulation2.9%
Jaguars by 1–818.1%
Jaguars by 9–1611.3%
Jaguars by 17+6.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.4 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Bengals by 3, without the luck Bengals by 4.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 57 yds missed · 65% expected
  • B. McManus, 48 yds missed · 79% expected
  • E. McPherson, 54 yds made · 69% expected
  • B. McManus, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • E. McPherson, 48 yds made · 79% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 6 for 35 yards, Jaguars 7 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:17 Face Mask on the Jaguars, 15 yards +5% CIN +1.8 pts
Q1 6:51 Offensive Holding on the Bengals (Joe Bachie), 10 yards +2% JAX +1.0 pts
Q2 10:22 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Calvin Ridley), 10 yards +2% CIN +0.7 pts
Q2 9:18 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bengals (Trey Hendrickson), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% JAX +1.0 pts
Q3 10:16 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bengals (Chidobe Awuzie), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.8 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN +0.7 pts
Q4 15:00 Delay of Game on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN +0.8 pts
Q4 14:02 Illegal Contact on the Jaguars (Devin Lloyd), 5 yards +1% CIN +0.8 pts
Q4 8:12 Illegal Contact on the Bengals (DJ Turner), 5 yards +3% JAX +0.9 pts
Q4 7:08 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CIN +0.9 pts
Q4 4:00 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% JAX +0.7 pts
Q4 3:17 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% JAX +0.9 pts
QOT 6:19 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play +50% CIN +5.1 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 12:01 The Bengals converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +27% CIN CIN: Touchdown
2 Q3 5:33 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedThe Jaguars got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +25% JAX JAX: Touchdown
3 Q4 2:28 The Jaguars fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +28% JAX JAX: Field goal
4 Q4 0:37 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +16% CIN JAX: Field goal
5 QOT 8:48 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +16% JAX JAX: Punt
6 QOT 6:19 The game turned hereOffensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +50% CIN CIN: Field goal
7 QOT 3:22 The Bengals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +20% CIN CIN: Field goal
8 QOT 1:50 E. McPherson made 48-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 34 of 45 from 45+ before +20% CIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cam Robinson (JAX T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Montaric Brown (JAX CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Joe Burrow (CIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.browning · 7.2 pts
  • Cam Taylor-Britt (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 41% · Jaguars 59%

Final margin
Bengals by 3
Luck in points
1.4 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 4.4
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 62% · Jaguars 38% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2023 games · Bengals · Jaguars

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