luckadjusted

2023 NFL season · November 30, 2023–December 4

Week 13 2023: who deserved to win

3 of 13 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Packers beat the Chiefs 27–19 in a game they win 25% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 13 2023 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 3 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Bengals 34–31 @ Jaguars 23% 62% Deserved
Cardinals 24–10 @ Steelers 33% 42% Coin flip
Packers 27–19 vs Chiefs 34% 25% Lucky

Week 13 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Packers W 27–19 vs Chiefs 25% +75
2 Texans W 22–17 vs Broncos 39% +61
3 Cardinals W 24–10 @ Steelers 42% +58
4 Bengals W 34–31 @ Jaguars 62% +38
5 Lions W 33–28 @ Saints 67% +33
6 Rams W 36–19 vs Browns 68% +32
7 Cowboys W 41–35 vs Seahawks 69% +31
8 Chargers W 6–0 @ Patriots 73% +27
9 Colts W 31–28 @ Titans 78% +22
10 Buccaneers W 21–18 vs Panthers 91% +9
11 Falcons W 13–8 @ Jets 94% +6
12 Dolphins W 45–15 @ Commanders 96% +4
13 49ers W 42–19 @ Eagles 97% +3
14 Eagles L 19–42 vs 49ers 3% −3
15 Commanders L 15–45 vs Dolphins 4% −4
16 Jets L 8–13 vs Falcons 6% −6
17 Panthers L 18–21 @ Buccaneers 9% −9
18 Titans L 28–31 vs Colts 22% −22
19 Patriots L 0–6 vs Chargers 27% −27
20 Seahawks L 35–41 @ Cowboys 31% −31
21 Browns L 19–36 @ Rams 32% −32
22 Saints L 28–33 vs Lions 33% −33
23 Jaguars L 31–34 vs Bengals 38% −38
24 Steelers L 10–24 vs Cardinals 58% −58
25 Broncos L 17–22 @ Texans 61% −61
26 Chiefs L 19–27 @ Packers 75% −75