luckadjusted

2023 NFL season · November 23, 2023–November 27

Week 12 2023: who deserved to win

3 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Bears beat the Vikings 12–10 in a game they win 27% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 12 2023 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Packers 29–22 @ Lions 26% 57% Coin flip
Giants 10–7 vs Patriots 37% 38% Lucky
Bears 12–10 @ Vikings 41% 27% Lucky
Falcons 24–15 vs Saints 44% 80% Deserved

Week 12 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Bears W 12–10 @ Vikings 27% +73
2 Giants W 10–7 vs Patriots 38% +62
3 Eagles W 37–34 vs Bills 41% +59
4 Packers W 29–22 @ Lions 57% +43
5 Jaguars W 24–21 @ Texans 62% +38
6 Colts W 27–20 vs Buccaneers 64% +36
7 Cowboys W 45–10 vs Commanders 75% +25
8 Broncos W 29–12 vs Browns 79% +21
9 Falcons W 24–15 vs Saints 80% +20
10 Chiefs W 31–17 @ Raiders 82% +18
11 Steelers W 16–10 @ Bengals 85% +15
12 Ravens W 20–10 @ Chargers 88% +12
13 Titans W 17–10 vs Panthers 89% +11
14 Rams W 37–14 @ Cardinals 98% +2
15 49ers W 31–13 @ Seahawks 98% +2
16 Dolphins W 34–13 @ Jets 100% 0
17 Jets L 13–34 vs Dolphins 0% 0
18 Seahawks L 13–31 vs 49ers 2% −2
19 Cardinals L 14–37 vs Rams 2% −2
20 Panthers L 10–17 @ Titans 11% −11
21 Chargers L 10–20 vs Ravens 12% −12
22 Bengals L 10–16 vs Steelers 15% −15
23 Raiders L 17–31 vs Chiefs 18% −18
24 Saints L 15–24 @ Falcons 20% −20
25 Browns L 12–29 @ Broncos 21% −21
26 Commanders L 10–45 @ Cowboys 25% −25
27 Buccaneers L 20–27 @ Colts 36% −36
28 Texans L 21–24 vs Jaguars 38% −38
29 Lions L 22–29 vs Packers 43% −43
30 Bills L 34–37 @ Eagles 59% −59
31 Patriots L 7–10 @ Giants 62% −62
32 Vikings L 10–12 vs Bears 73% −73