2023 season · final

Los Angeles Chargers, 2023: game by game

The Chargers went 5–12 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.8 wins. Luck cost them 1.8: the 5th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–8.

Every game

How often the Chargers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Dolphins	L 34–36	42%	−42
Week 2	@ Titans	L 24–27	40%	−40
Week 3	@ Vikings	W 28–24	48%	+52
Week 4	vs Raiders	W 24–17	89%	+11
Week 6	vs Cowboys	L 17–20	43%	−43
Week 7	@ Chiefs	L 17–31	9%	−9
Week 8	vs Bears	W 30–13	63%	+37
Week 9	@ Jets	W 27–6	78%	+22
Week 10	vs Lions	L 38–41	33%	−33
Week 11	@ Packers	L 20–23	67%	−67
Week 12	vs Ravens	L 10–20	12%	−12
Week 13	@ Patriots	W 6–0	73%	+27
Week 14	vs Broncos	L 7–24	14%	−14
Week 15	@ Raiders	L 21–63	13%	−13
Week 16	vs Bills	L 22–24	16%	−16
Week 17	@ Broncos	L 9–16	31%	−31
Week 18	vs Chiefs	L 12–13	12%	−12

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −42 vs MIA

Wk 2 −40 @ TEN

Wk 3 +52 @ MIN

Wk 4 +11 vs LV

Wk 6 −43 vs DAL

Wk 7 −9 @ KC

Wk 8 +37 vs CHI

Wk 9 +22 @ NYJ

Wk 10 −33 vs DET

Wk 11 −67 @ GB

Wk 12 −12 vs BAL

Wk 13 +27 @ NE

Wk 14 −14 vs DEN

Wk 15 −13 @ LV

Wk 16 −16 vs BUF

Wk 17 −31 @ DEN

Wk 18 −12 vs KC

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Chargers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.37	+14.5
Fumble bounces	−0.03	−3.1
Rest	−0.04	−1.2
Judgment calls	−0.19	+6.5
Drops	−0.20	−0.4
Injuries	−0.31	−14.3
3rd & 4th downs	−0.73	−6.0