luckadjusted

Week 15 2023 · December 14, 2023

Chargers at Raiders, Week 15 2023: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Chargers 63–21, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Raiders were 59% favorites.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 21
Las Vegas Raiders 63

December 14, 2023 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −3

Luck index +13 Raiders about even · −13 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 1, Raiders win 9.

  1. 1 LAC 26 LV 19
  2. 2 LAC 16 LV 18
  3. 3 LAC 10 LV 15
  4. 4 LAC 24 LV 32
  5. 5 LAC 17 LV 28
  6. 6 LAC 10 LV 23
  7. 7 LAC 13 LV 29
  8. 8 LAC 13 LV 33
  9. 9 LAC 7 LV 31
  10. 10 LAC 3 LV 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 13% of them, Raiders 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 42.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+1.1%
Chargers by 9–163.2%
Chargers by 1–87.9%
Level after regulation2.3%
Raiders by 1–816.1%
Raiders by 9–1620.7%
Raiders by 17+48.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +15.9 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Raiders by 42, without the luck Raiders by 26.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Chargers 6 for 65 yards, Raiders 4 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:44 Fair Catch Interference on the Chargers, 15 yards +3% LV +1.4 pts
Q1 10:12 Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Derwin James), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% LV +0.1 pts
Q1 4:36 False Start on the Raiders (Jakobi Meyers), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LAC +0.5 pts
Q1 3:01 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +1% LV +1.5 pts
Q2 13:12 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Raiders (Janarius Robinson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LAC +0.6 pts
Q2 8:33 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards 0% LV +1.0 pts
Q2 3:50 Taunting on the Raiders (Amik Robertson), 15 yards 0% LAC +1.8 pts
Q3 12:41 Face Mask on the Chargers (Justin Hollins), 15 yards 0% LV +1.7 pts
Q4 7:10 Offensive Holding on the Chargers (Stone Smartt), 10 yards 0% LV +0.9 pts
Q4 4:10 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Raiders (Janarius Robinson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LAC +0.8 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:47 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +3% LV LAC: Punt
2 Q1 13:44 Fair Catch Interference on the Chargers, 15 yardsJudgment calls +3% LV LV: Touchdown
3 Q1 11:28 The Raiders converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +3% LV LV: Touchdown
4 Q1 10:12 Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Derwin James), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 14 flags in 2966 snaps before, position avg 1 per 462 +3% LV LV: Touchdown
5 Q1 8:55 The Raiders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +6% LV LV: Touchdown
6 Q1 6:12 The Chargers fumbled and the Raiders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% LV LAC: Turnover
7 Q1 5:25 The Raiders converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +4% LV LV: Touchdown
8 Q1 4:41 The Chargers fumbled and the Raiders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +2% LV LAC: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brian Hoyer (LV QB), out, replaced by a.o'connell · 1.8 pts
  • Kolton Miller (LV T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Josh Jacobs (LV RB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Andre James (LV C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Justin Herbert (LAC QB), out (IR), replaced by e.stick · 6.3 pts
  • Keenan Allen (LAC WR), out · 1.1 pts
  • Joey Bosa (LAC DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Deane Leonard (LAC CB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 0% · Raiders 100%

Final margin
Raiders by 42
Luck in points
15.9 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 26.1
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 13% · Raiders 87% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2023 games · Chargers · Raiders

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