Week 15 2023 · December 17, 2023
Bears at Browns, Week 15 2023: who deserved to win?
The Browns beat the Bears 20–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Browns win 9 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Bears.
An off day for the Bears: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Browns they would win 44% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Browns were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:05 left): the Bears were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 99 points of win probability to the Browns.
Final
 Chicago Bears | 17 |
|---|---|
 Cleveland Browns | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Browns about even · −12 Bears
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bears win 1, Browns win 9.
- 1 CHI 22 CLE 13
- 2 CHI 21 CLE 23
- 3 CHI 18 CLE 23
- 4 CHI 15 CLE 23
- 5 CHI 20 CLE 31
- 6 CHI 12 CLE 27
- 7 CHI 16 CLE 33
- 8 CHI 15 CLE 37
- 9 CHI 19 CLE 45
- 10 CHI 10 CLE 43
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Bears
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Browns they would win 44% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
32 points apart for the Bears: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears offenseEPA per play gained | −0.30 | +0.09 | worse by 0.40 |
| Bears defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.05 | +0.14 | better by 0.19 |
| Browns offenseEPA per play gained | −0.05 | +0.04 | worse by 0.09 |
| Browns defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.30 | +0.04 | better by 0.34 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bears win 12% of them, Browns 88%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bears by 17+ | 1.3% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 2.5% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 7.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| Browns by 1–8 | 15.2% |
| Browns by 9–16 | 19.3% |
| Browns by 17+ | 53.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Santos, 41 yds made · 83% expected
- D. Hopkins, 33 yds made · 93% expected
- D. Hopkins, 34 yds made · 92% expected
Penalties: Bears 4 for 19 yards, Browns 9 for 48 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:38 | Encroachment on the Bears (Andrew Billings), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CLE +0.6 pts |
| Q1 7:14 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards | +2% CHI +0.9 pts |
| Q1 5:22 | False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CHI +0.5 pts |
| Q1 0:39 | False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CLE +0.7 pts |
| Q2 12:42 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Browns, 2 yards · pre-snap | +1% CHI +0.4 pts |
| Q2 12:28 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Martin Emerson), 1 yard | +2% CHI +0.4 pts |
| Q2 12:24 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Browns, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% CHI 0.0 pts |
| Q2 11:30 | False Start on the Bears (Cole Kmet), 4 yards · pre-snap | +4% CLE +0.8 pts |
| Q2 1:41 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards | +3% CHI +0.7 pts |
| Q3 14:09 | Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Bears, 5 yards | +2% CLE +0.5 pts |
| Q4 14:56 | False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CHI +0.7 pts |
| Q4 13:47 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards | +4% CHI +0.9 pts |
| Q4 1:42 | Offensive Offside on the Browns (David Njoku), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CHI +0.5 pts |
Bears penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2023
When it happened
Browns’ chance of winning
As low as 10% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:05 | The Bears converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +8% CHI | CHI: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 8:49 | The Browns converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +10% CLE | CLE: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 0:04 | The Bears were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedThe Bears were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +21% CLE | CHI: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 14:01 | The Browns were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the BearsSpecial teams | +40% CHI | CLE: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 2:39 | The Bears fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% CLE | CHI: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 15:00 | The Bears were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +8% CLE | CHI: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 0:56 | The Browns converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 17% expected | +20% CLE | CLE: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:05 | The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedThe Bears were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +99% CLE | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Grant Delpit (CLE SS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Juan Thornhill (CLE FS), out · 0.5 pts
- Ethan Pocic (CLE C), out · 0.4 pts
- Dawand Jones (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Anthony Walker (CLE LB), out · 0.2 pts
- Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (CLE DE), out · 0.2 pts
- Yannick Ngakoue (CHI DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bears 38% · Browns 62%
- Final margin
- Browns by 3
- Luck in points
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Browns by 3.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Bears 12% · Browns 88% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2023 games · 
Bears · 
Browns
More from Week 15 2023
- Chargers at Raiders LV 63–21 · replay 87% for the winner
- Vikings at Bengals CIN 27–24 · replay 26% for the winner
- Steelers at Colts IND 30–13 · replay 96% for the winner
- Broncos at Lions DET 42–17 · replay 88% for the winner
- Falcons at Panthers CAR 9–7 · replay 56% for the winner
- Texans at Titans HOU 19–16 · replay 84% for the winner
- Chiefs at Patriots KC 27–17 · replay 92% for the winner
- Giants at Saints NO 24–6 · replay 98% for the winner
- Jets at Dolphins MIA 30–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Packers TB 34–20 · replay 75% for the winner
- 49ers at Cardinals SF 45–29 · replay 99% for the winner
- Commanders at Rams LA 28–20 · replay 75% for the winner
- Cowboys at Bills BUF 31–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- Ravens at Jaguars BAL 23–7 · replay 96% for the winner
- Eagles at Seahawks SEA 20–17 · replay 18% for the winner