luckadjusted

2023 season · final

Chicago Bears, 2023: game by game

The Bears went 7–10 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.3 wins. Luck cost them 0.3: the 14th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–6.

Every game

How often the Bears win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Packers L 20–38 42% −42
Week 2 @ Buccaneers L 17–27 5% −5
Week 3 @ Chiefs L 10–41 1% −1
Week 4 vs Broncos L 28–31 66% −66
Week 5 @ Commanders W 40–20 22% +78
Week 6 vs Vikings L 13–19 33% −33
Week 7 vs Raiders W 30–12 76% +24
Week 8 @ Chargers L 13–30 37% −37
Week 9 @ Saints L 17–24 29% −29
Week 10 vs Panthers W 16–13 94% +6
Week 11 @ Lions L 26–31 21% −21
Week 12 @ Vikings W 12–10 27% +73
Week 14 vs Lions W 28–13 85% +15
Week 15 @ Browns L 17–20 12% −12
Week 16 vs Cardinals W 27–16 78% +22
Week 17 vs Falcons W 37–17 90% +10
Week 18 @ Packers L 9–17 10% −10

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Bears’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Kicks+1.02+24.0
Injuries+0.23+6.3
Rest+0.06+2.4
Drops−0.05−11.5
Fumble bounces−0.13−1.6
3rd & 4th downs−0.29−7.2
Judgment calls−1.15−43.6