luckadjusted

Week 9 2023 · November 5, 2023

Bears at Saints, Week 9 2023: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Bears 24–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Saints were 75% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 6:22 left): Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 14 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

Chicago Bears 17
New Orleans Saints 24

November 5, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −9

Luck index +29 Saints lucky · −29 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 3, Saints win 7.

  1. 1 CHI 30 NO 14
  2. 2 CHI 24 NO 16
  3. 3 CHI 23 NO 20
  4. 4 CHI 24 NO 27
  5. 5 CHI 27 NO 32
  6. 6 CHI 10 NO 17
  7. 7 CHI 17 NO 27
  8. 8 CHI 17 NO 31
  9. 9 CHI 10 NO 27
  10. 10 CHI 10 NO 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 29% of them, Saints 71%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+3.9%
Bears by 9–167.6%
Bears by 1–815.1%
Level after regulation3.3%
Saints by 1–825.4%
Saints by 9–1622.2%
Saints by 17+22.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +13.8 points to the Saints: the final margin was Saints by 7, without the luck Bears by 6.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 40 yds missed · 89% expected
  • B. Grupe, 55 yds made · 65% expected
  • C. Santos, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • B. Grupe, 47 yds missed · 79% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bears 8 for 71 yards, Saints 1 for 5 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:04 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards +1% NO +0.9 pts
Q2 13:23 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards +5% NO +1.5 pts
Q3 10:02 Offensive Offside on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +1.1 pts
Q3 6:22 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play +14% NO +2.9 pts
Q3 5:56 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.7 pts
Q4 9:46 Defensive Holding on the Bears (Jaylon Jones), 6 yards +1% NO +1.2 pts
Q4 9:03 False Start on the Saints (Juwan Johnson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CHI +0.8 pts
Q4 2:57 Face Mask on the Bears (Velus Jones Jr.), 15 yards 0% NO +1.4 pts
Q4 2:26 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards +4% NO +1.2 pts

Bears penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:49 The Saints converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +12% NO NO: Touchdown
2 Q2 6:08 The Saints converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +9% NO NO: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:32 C. Santos missed 40-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him +9% NO CHI: Turnover
4 Q3 13:55 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expectedC. Olave dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 137 catchable balls before this +11% CHI NO: Punt
5 Q3 11:48 B. Grupe made 55-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 5 of 8 from 45+ before +8% NO NO: Punt
6 Q3 9:42 The Bears converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% CHI CHI: Field goal
7 Q3 6:22 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +14% NO NO: Punt
8 Q4 5:14 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedThe Bears threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% NO CHI: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tremaine Edmunds (CHI LB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Nate Davis (CHI G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jaquan Brisker (CHI SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Terell Smith (CHI CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Khalil Herbert (CHI RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 77% · Saints 23%

Final margin
Saints by 7
Luck in points
13.8 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 6.8
Replay with same day's form
Bears 29% · Saints 71% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2023 games · Bears · Saints

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