luckadjusted

Week 9 2023 · November 5, 2023

Rams at Packers, Week 9 2023: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Rams 20–3 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Rams had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Rams.

Before kickoff the Packers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:17 left): the Rams were stopped on 3rd & 2, worth 10 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 3
Green Bay Packers 20

November 5, 2023 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −3.5

Luck index +25 Packers lucky · −25 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 3, Packers win 7.

  1. 1 LA 40 GB 24
  2. 2 LA 30 GB 23
  3. 3 LA 19 GB 16
  4. 4 LA 15 GB 17
  5. 5 LA 13 GB 17
  6. 6 LA 10 GB 17
  7. 7 LA 9 GB 20
  8. 8 LA 10 GB 23
  9. 9 LA 16 GB 33
  10. 10 LA 7 GB 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 25% of them, Packers 75%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+2.8%
Rams by 9–167.0%
Rams by 1–814.0%
Level after regulation4.5%
Packers by 1–825.4%
Packers by 9–1622.5%
Packers by 17+23.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.1 points to the Packers: the final margin was Packers by 17, without the luck Packers by 14.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • L. Havrisik, 52 yds made · 67% expected
  • A. Carlson, 48 yds missed · 75% expected
  • L. Havrisik, 49 yds missed · 73% expected
  • A. Carlson, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • A. Carlson, 34 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Rams 5 for 36 yards, Packers 8 for 57 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:34 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Kingsley Enagbare), 8 yards +2% LA +0.5 pts
Q1 6:17 Offensive Offside on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +1.0 pts
Q1 5:22 Face Mask on the Packers (Rashan Gary), 15 yards, wiping out the play +7% LA +2.3 pts
Q1 5:18 Defensive Offside on the Packers (Rashan Gary), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% LA +1.2 pts
Q2 14:14 False Start on the Rams (Demarcus Robinson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.6 pts
Q2 11:12 Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.4 pts
Q2 10:24 Delay of Game on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.8 pts
Q2 7:47 Offensive Offside on the Packers, 4 yards · pre-snap +2% LA +1.0 pts
Q2 7:38 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Ben Skowronek), 10 yards +3% GB +0.7 pts
Q2 1:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Ahkello Witherspoon), 6 yards +1% GB +0.4 pts
Q2 0:15 False Start on the Packers (Jayden Reed), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LA +0.5 pts
Q3 12:06 Offensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Puka Nacua), 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% GB +2.3 pts
Q3 10:09 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% LA +1.9 pts

Rams penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:17 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +7% GB LA: Punt
2 Q1 5:22 Face Mask on the Packers (Rashan Gary), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 2216 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +7% LA LA: Turnover
3 Q2 4:20 The Rams converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +7% LA LA: Field goal
4 Q2 0:04 A. Carlson missed 48-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 2 of 2 from 45+ before +8% LA GB: Turnover
5 Q3 12:06 Offensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Puka Nacua), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 494 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +9% GB GB: Turnover
6 Q3 8:22 The Packers fumbled and the Rams recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% LA GB: Field goal
7 Q3 7:17 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +10% GB LA: Missed field goal
8 Q3 6:34 L. Havrisik missed 49-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 2 of 2 from 45+ before +9% GB LA: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • David Bakhtiari (GB T), out (IR) · 1.3 pts
  • Quay Walker (GB LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Rudy Ford (GB FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Matthew Stafford (LA QB), out, replaced by b.rypien · 7.0 pts
  • Rob Havenstein (LA T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Ernest Jones (LA LB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Kyren Williams (LA RB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 0% · Packers 100%

Final margin
Packers by 17
Luck in points
2.1 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 14.9
Replay with same day's form
Rams 25% · Packers 75% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2023 games · Rams · Packers

More from Week 9 2023