luckadjusted

Week 9 2023 · November 5, 2023

Buccaneers at Texans, Week 9 2023: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Buccaneers 39–37, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Texans win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Texans were 57% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:10 left): Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Buccaneers (Lavonte David), 15 yards, worth 16 points of win probability to the Texans. The biggest single swing (Q4, 0:53 left): the Buccaneers fumbled and recovered it themselves.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 37
Houston Texans 39

November 5, 2023 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −2.5

Luck index +19 Texans about even · −19 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 2, Texans win 8.

  1. 1 TB 34 HOU 19
  2. 2 TB 24 HOU 20
  3. 3 TB 22 HOU 24
  4. 4 TB 35 HOU 40
  5. 5 TB 22 HOU 30
  6. 6 TB 20 HOU 32
  7. 7 TB 28 HOU 44
  8. 8 TB 12 HOU 32
  9. 9 TB 15 HOU 41
  10. 10 TB 6 HOU 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 19% of them, Texans 81%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+2.5%
Buccaneers by 9–165.5%
Buccaneers by 1–811.1%
Level after regulation1.3%
Texans by 1–822.0%
Texans by 9–1620.8%
Texans by 17+36.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.8 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Texans by 2, without the luck Texans by 7.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 50 yds made · 72% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 49 yds made · 75% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 55 yds made · 66% expected
  • D. Ogunbowale, 29 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 9 for 90 yards, Texans 9 for 115 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:43 Roughing the Passer on the Buccaneers, 15 yards +5% HOU +1.8 pts
Q1 5:27 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Jimmie Ward), 14 yards +4% TB +1.6 pts
Q1 4:10 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +4% HOU +1.5 pts
Q1 0:31 Offensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Mike Evans), 10 yards, wiping out the play +14% HOU +4.1 pts
Q2 12:15 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Texans, 15 yards +4% TB +1.4 pts
Q2 1:29 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 5 yards +1% HOU +0.1 pts
Q2 0:13 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% TB +0.5 pts
Q2 0:07 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 0 yards, wiping out the play +1% TB +1.5 pts
Q3 14:55 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Denzel Perryman), 15 yards +5% TB +1.5 pts
Q3 12:20 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Buccaneers (Joe Tryon-Shoyinka), 15 yards, wiping out the play +13% HOU +2.3 pts
Q3 10:59 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Shaquill Griffin), 37 yards +13% TB +4.2 pts
Q3 7:08 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +6% TB +2.1 pts
Q3 5:59 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +3% HOU +0.9 pts
Q4 10:11 False Start on the Texans (Xavier Hutchinson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.7 pts
Q4 7:11 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +13% TB +2.6 pts
Q4 6:08 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 9 yards +3% TB +0.7 pts
Q4 1:55 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.4 pts
Q4 0:10 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Buccaneers (Lavonte David), 15 yards +16% HOU +2.1 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 19% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:31 Offensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Mike Evans), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 13 flags in 4252 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +14% HOU HOU: Punt
2 Q3 12:20 The Texans’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe Texans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's handsUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Buccaneers (Joe Tryon-Shoyinka), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1975 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +15% HOU HOU: Touchdown
3 Q3 10:59 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Shaquill Griffin), 37 yardsJudgment calls · 14 flags in 3609 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +13% TB TB: Field goal
4 Q4 14:15 The Texans converted 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +17% HOU HOU: Touchdown
5 Q4 7:11 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +13% TB TB: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:13 The Buccaneers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +18% TB TB: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:53 The Buccaneers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +21% TB TB: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:10 The game turned hereUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Buccaneers (Lavonte David), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 5057 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +16% HOU HOU: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Robert Woods (HOU WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Sheldon Rankins (HOU DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kendrick Green (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jarrett Patterson (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Logan Hall (TB DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Matt Feiler (TB G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 27% · Texans 73%

Final margin
Texans by 2
Luck in points
5.8 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 7.8
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 19% · Texans 81% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2023 games · Buccaneers · Texans

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