luckadjusted

Week 9 2023 · November 6, 2023

Chargers at Jets, Week 9 2023: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Jets 27–6 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 6:35 left): the Jets were stopped on 3rd & 3, worth 17 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 27
New York Jets 6

November 6, 2023 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −3

Luck index +22 Chargers about even · −22 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 8, Jets win 2.

  1. 1 LAC 34 NYJ 6
  2. 2 LAC 24 NYJ 3
  3. 3 LAC 31 NYJ 13
  4. 4 LAC 26 NYJ 12
  5. 5 LAC 19 NYJ 7
  6. 6 LAC 13 NYJ 6
  7. 7 LAC 13 NYJ 7
  8. 8 LAC 17 NYJ 14
  9. 9 LAC 6 NYJ 10
  10. 10 LAC 13 NYJ 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 78% of them, Jets 22%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+31.6%
Chargers by 9–1621.6%
Chargers by 1–823.5%
Level after regulation2.4%
Jets by 1–812.3%
Jets by 9–166.8%
Jets by 17+1.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.8 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Chargers by 21, without the luck Chargers by 16.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 47 yds made · 76% expected
  • C. Dicker, 55 yds made · 65% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 46 yds made · 78% expected
  • C. Dicker, 38 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 4 for 39 yards, Jets 8 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:22 Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 15 yards +4% NYJ +1.0 pts
Q1 10:55 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q1 3:17 Face Mask on the Jets (Jordan Whitehead), 0 yards +1% LAC +0.5 pts
Q1 2:53 Defensive Offside on the Jets (D.J. Reed), 0 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC 0.0 pts
Q1 2:03 Illegal Shift on the Jets (Allen Lazard), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% LAC +1.6 pts
Q2 7:43 Illegal Formation on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LAC +1.2 pts
Q2 5:57 Illegal Use of Hands on the Jets (Jermaine Johnson II), 5 yards +1% NYJ +0.1 pts
Q3 8:24 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Allen Lazard), 10 yards +2% LAC +0.7 pts
Q3 7:29 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Derwin James), 14 yards +4% NYJ +1.4 pts
Q3 3:45 False Start on the Jets (Jeremy Ruckert), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% LAC +1.1 pts
Q4 8:46 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jets (Garrett Wilson), 10 yards +2% LAC +0.8 pts
Q4 2:09 Illegal Contact on the Chargers (Deane Leonard), 5 yards 0% LAC 0.0 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:35 Return touchdown by the ChargersSpecial teams +16% LAC LAC: Opp touchdown
2 Q1 10:52 The Chargers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% LAC LAC: Punt
3 Q1 8:13 The Jets converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% NYJ NYJ: Turnover
4 Q1 6:35 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedThe Jets fumbled and the Chargers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +17% LAC NYJ: Punt
5 Q1 5:14 The Chargers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +6% LAC LAC: Touchdown
6 Q2 1:14 The Chargers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +4% LAC LAC: Punt
7 Q3 5:51 The Jets converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +7% NYJ NYJ: Punt
8 Q3 2:08 The Chargers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% LAC LAC: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Duane Brown (NYJ T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Connor McGovern (NYJ C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Mike Williams (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Corey Linsley (LAC C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Josh Palmer (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 99% · Jets 1%

Final margin
Chargers by 21
Luck in points
4.8 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 16.2
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 78% · Jets 22% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2023 games · Chargers · Jets

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