luckadjusted

Week 9 2023 · November 5, 2023

Colts at Panthers, Week 9 2023: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Panthers 27–13 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Colts were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:52 left): Return touchdown by the Colts, worth 22 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 27
Carolina Panthers 13

November 5, 2023 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Colts −1.5

Luck index +20 Colts about even · −20 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 8, Panthers win 2.

  1. 1 IND 37 CAR 10
  2. 2 IND 24 CAR 6
  3. 3 IND 30 CAR 16
  4. 4 IND 21 CAR 10
  5. 5 IND 9 CAR 0
  6. 6 IND 9 CAR 3
  7. 7 IND 23 CAR 20
  8. 8 IND 12 CAR 10
  9. 9 IND 17 CAR 20
  10. 10 IND 17 CAR 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 80% of them, Panthers 20%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+29.1%
Colts by 9–1621.1%
Colts by 1–829.5%
Level after regulation1.9%
Panthers by 1–811.1%
Panthers by 9–165.9%
Panthers by 17+1.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.1 points to the Colts: the final margin was Colts by 14, without the luck Colts by 13.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 26 yds made · 99% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • M. Gay, 57 yds made · 65% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 49 yds made · 79% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 5 for 25 yards, Panthers 10 for 81 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:03 False Start on the Panthers, 4 yards · pre-snap +4% IND +1.2 pts
Q1 11:37 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Colts, 5 yards +2% CAR +1.4 pts
Q1 11:10 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.7 pts
Q1 10:20 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 9 yards +2% IND +0.8 pts
Q1 4:37 Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Eku Leota), 5 yards · pre-snap +7% IND +2.4 pts
Q1 2:47 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers, 15 yards +6% IND +1.8 pts
Q2 14:17 False Start on the Colts (Michael Pittman Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.6 pts
Q2 8:32 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Xavier Woods), 13 yards +3% IND +1.3 pts
Q2 6:29 Encroachment on the Colts (DeForest Buckner), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.6 pts
Q2 2:55 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.5 pts
Q3 14:21 Illegal Contact on the Panthers (Donte Jackson), 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% CAR +0.1 pts
Q3 1:55 Tripping on the Panthers (Kamu Grugier-Hill), 5 yards +2% IND +0.5 pts
Q3 0:02 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +1.3 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Panthers (Adam Thielen), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.8 pts
Q4 6:42 Roughing the Passer on the Panthers (Derrick Brown), 15 yards 0% IND +1.4 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:14 The Colts fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% CAR IND: Field goal
2 Q1 4:37 Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Eku Leota), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 14 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +7% IND IND: Field goal
3 Q1 2:47 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% IND IND: Field goal
4 Q2 2:55 The Colts converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedFalse Start on the Colts, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% IND IND: Field goal
5 Q2 0:31 The Panthers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the ColtsSpecial teams +18% IND CAR: End of half
6 Q3 4:41 The Panthers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +6% CAR CAR: Touchdown
7 Q4 15:00 The Panthers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedFalse Start on the Panthers (Adam Thielen), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 3776 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +8% CAR CAR: Opp touchdown
8 Q4 13:52 The Panthers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the ColtsSpecial teams +22% IND CAR: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Vonn Bell (CAR SS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jeremy Chinn (CAR FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Shaq Thompson (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brady Christensen (CAR T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Yetur Gross-Matos (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Braden Smith (IND T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Dallis Flowers (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Zaire Franklin (IND LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Julius Brents (IND CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Grover Stewart (IND DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 99% · Panthers 1%

Final margin
Colts by 14
Luck in points
0.1 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 13.9
Replay with same day's form
Colts 80% · Panthers 20% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2023 games · Colts · Panthers

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