luckadjusted

2023 NFL season · November 2, 2023–November 6

Week 9 2023: who deserved to win

2 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Bengals beat the Bills 24–18 in a game they win 16% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 9 2023 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 2 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Vikings 31–28 @ Falcons 40% 44% Coin flip
Commanders 20–17 @ Patriots 43% 74% Deserved

Week 9 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Bengals W 24–18 vs Bills 16% +84
2 Vikings W 31–28 @ Falcons 44% +56
3 Eagles W 28–23 vs Cowboys 54% +46
4 Steelers W 20–16 vs Titans 67% +33
5 Chiefs W 21–14 vs Dolphins 68% +32
6 Saints W 24–17 vs Bears 71% +29
7 Commanders W 20–17 @ Patriots 74% +26
8 Packers W 20–3 vs Rams 75% +25
9 Chargers W 27–6 @ Jets 78% +22
10 Colts W 27–13 @ Panthers 80% +20
11 Texans W 39–37 vs Buccaneers 81% +19
12 Raiders W 30–6 vs Giants 96% +4
13 Ravens W 37–3 vs Seahawks 98% +2
14 Browns W 27–0 vs Cardinals 99% +1
15 Cardinals L 0–27 @ Browns 1% −1
16 Seahawks L 3–37 @ Ravens 2% −2
17 Giants L 6–30 @ Raiders 4% −4
18 Buccaneers L 37–39 @ Texans 19% −19
19 Panthers L 13–27 vs Colts 20% −20
20 Jets L 6–27 vs Chargers 22% −22
21 Rams L 3–20 @ Packers 25% −25
22 Patriots L 17–20 vs Commanders 26% −26
23 Bears L 17–24 @ Saints 29% −29
24 Dolphins L 14–21 @ Chiefs 32% −32
25 Titans L 16–20 @ Steelers 33% −33
26 Cowboys L 23–28 @ Eagles 46% −46
27 Falcons L 28–31 vs Vikings 56% −56
28 Bills L 18–24 @ Bengals 84% −84