2023 season · final

Minnesota Vikings, 2023: game by game

The Vikings went 7–10 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.5 wins. Luck cost them 2.5: the 3rd-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–8.

Every game

How often the Vikings win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Buccaneers	L 17–20	90%	−90
Week 2	@ Eagles	L 28–34	19%	−19
Week 3	vs Chargers	L 24–28	52%	−52
Week 4	@ Panthers	W 21–13	93%	+7
Week 5	vs Chiefs	L 20–27	22%	−22
Week 6	@ Bears	W 19–13	67%	+33
Week 7	vs 49ers	W 22–17	66%	+34
Week 8	@ Packers	W 24–10	93%	+7
Week 9	@ Falcons	W 31–28	44%	+56
Week 10	vs Saints	W 27–19	97%	+3
Week 11	@ Broncos	L 20–21	17%	−17
Week 12	vs Bears	L 10–12	73%	−73
Week 14	@ Raiders	W 3–0	88%	+12
Week 15	@ Bengals	L 24–27	74%	−74
Week 16	vs Lions	L 24–30	23%	−23
Week 17	vs Packers	L 10–33	4%	−4
Week 18	@ Lions	L 20–30	28%	−28

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −90 vs TB

Wk 2 −19 @ PHI

Wk 3 −52 vs LAC

Wk 4 +7 @ CAR

Wk 5 −22 vs KC

Wk 6 +33 @ CHI

Wk 7 +34 vs SF

Wk 8 +7 @ GB

Wk 9 +56 @ ATL

Wk 10 +3 vs NO

Wk 11 −17 @ DEN

Wk 12 −73 vs CHI

Wk 14 +12 @ LV

Wk 15 −74 @ CIN

Wk 16 −23 vs DET

Wk 17 −4 vs GB

Wk 18 −28 @ DET

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Vikings’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Judgment calls	+0.91	+24.5
Fumble bounces	−0.11	−7.9
Drops	−0.14	−7.2
3rd & 4th downs	−0.32	−4.9
Kicks	−0.87	−13.2
Injuries	−1.20	−41.5