luckadjusted

Week 8 2023 · October 29, 2023

Vikings at Packers, Week 8 2023: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Packers 24–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 9 of 10. The Packers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 19 points of win probability to the Packers.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:11 left): G. Joseph missed 42-yard field goal, worth 12 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 24
Green Bay Packers 10

October 29, 2023 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Vikings −1

Luck index +7 Vikings about even · −7 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 9, Packers win 1.

  1. 1 MIN 41 GB 10
  2. 2 MIN 30 GB 6
  3. 3 MIN 23 GB 3
  4. 4 MIN 30 GB 13
  5. 5 MIN 31 GB 17
  6. 6 MIN 21 GB 10
  7. 7 MIN 22 GB 14
  8. 8 MIN 12 GB 6
  9. 9 MIN 23 GB 20
  10. 10 MIN 17 GB 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 93% of them, Packers 7%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+52.7%
Vikings by 9–1623.4%
Vikings by 1–816.2%
Level after regulation1.3%
Packers by 1–85.1%
Packers by 9–161.3%
Packers by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.9 points to the Packers: the final margin was Vikings by 14, without the luck Vikings by 21.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Joseph, 42 yds missed · 81% expected
  • G. Joseph, 25 yds made · 97% expected
  • A. Carlson, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • G. Joseph, 44 yds blocked · 77% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 7 for 35 yards, Packers 11 for 99 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:01 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Packers, 4 yards, wiping out the play +8% MIN +3.2 pts
Q1 13:37 Defensive Offside on the Vikings (Jordan Hicks), 4 yards · pre-snap +3% GB +1.9 pts
Q1 12:49 False Start on the Packers (Corey Ballentine), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIN +1.3 pts
Q1 4:58 Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers, 15 yards, wiping out the play +4% GB +1.2 pts
Q1 4:54 Roughing the Passer on the Packers (Kingsley Enagbare), 15 yards +5% MIN +0.7 pts
Q1 2:38 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.8 pts
Q1 0:26 Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.3 pts
Q2 14:53 Illegal Use of Hands on the Packers (Rasul Douglas), 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% GB +0.1 pts
Q2 9:34 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards +5% MIN +1.5 pts
Q2 2:35 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Vikings, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% MIN +0.4 pts
Q2 2:31 Offensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Christian Watson), 10 yards +3% MIN +1.1 pts
Q2 0:05 Defensive Offside on the Vikings (Jay Ward), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.5 pts
Q3 3:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Akayleb Evans), 6 yards +2% GB +2.2 pts
Q3 3:23 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Vikings (Jonathan Bullard), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% GB 0.0 pts
Q3 2:39 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Ivan Pace), 10 yards +1% GB +1.0 pts
Q4 15:00 Roughing the Passer on the Packers (Rashan Gary), 15 yards +1% MIN +1.7 pts
Q4 2:53 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Eric Wilson), 10 yards +1% MIN +0.9 pts
Q4 2:22 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.4 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 56%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:01 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Packers, 4 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% MIN MIN: Missed field goal
2 Q1 11:53 The Vikings converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% MIN MIN: Missed field goal
3 Q1 7:11 G. Joseph missed 42-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him +12% GB MIN: Touchdown
4 Q2 13:56 The Vikings converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +8% MIN MIN: Field goal
5 Q2 9:34 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yardsJudgment calls +5% MIN MIN: Punt
6 Q2 3:36 The Packers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% GB GB: Field goal
7 Q3 14:28 The Vikings converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% MIN MIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 6:01 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedThe Vikings fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% GB MIN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • David Bakhtiari (GB T), out (IR) · 1.3 pts
  • Justin Jefferson (MIN WR), out (IR) · 1.8 pts
  • Ezra Cleveland (MIN G), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 100% · Packers 0%

Final margin
Vikings by 14
Luck in points
7.9 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 21.9
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 93% · Packers 7% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2023 games · Vikings · Packers

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