luckadjusted

Week 8 2023 · October 29, 2023

Jets at Giants, Week 8 2023: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Giants 13–10 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Jets were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 6:17 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Adoree' Jackson), 30 yards, worth 40 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final (OT)

New York Jets 13
New York Giants 10

October 29, 2023 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Jets −3

Luck index +32 Jets lucky · −32 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 7, Giants win 3.

  1. 1 NYJ 37 NYG 10
  2. 2 NYJ 29 NYG 8
  3. 3 NYJ 22 NYG 6
  4. 4 NYJ 29 NYG 17
  5. 5 NYJ 26 NYG 17
  6. 6 NYJ 33 NYG 27
  7. 7 NYJ 27 NYG 25
  8. 8 NYJ 16 NYG 19
  9. 9 NYJ 6 NYG 16
  10. 10 NYJ 8 NYG 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 68% of them, Giants 32%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+25.6%
Jets by 9–1619.7%
Jets by 1–822.3%
Level after regulation3.3%
Giants by 1–814.7%
Giants by 9–169.7%
Giants by 17+4.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.0 points to the Jets: the final margin was Jets by 3, without the luck Giants by 3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 31 yds made · 97% expected
  • G. Gano, 47 yds missed · 82% expected
  • G. Gano, 35 yds missed · 94% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 35 yds made · 92% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 33 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 9 for 85 yards, Giants 6 for 73 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:49 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.6 pts
Q1 0:32 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Quincy Williams), 15 yards +4% NYG +2.2 pts
Q2 11:35 Defensive Offside on the Jets (John Franklin-Myers), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.3 pts
Q2 11:23 Face Mask on the Jets (Solomon Thomas), 15 yards +2% NYG +0.4 pts
Q2 10:39 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q2 4:20 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets, 15 yards +5% NYG +1.4 pts
Q2 3:58 Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants (Isaiah Simmons), 15 yards +5% NYJ +1.2 pts
Q2 1:17 Delay of Game on the Giants, 6 yards · pre-snap +3% NYJ +0.3 pts
Q3 13:14 Lowering the Head to Make Forcible Contact on the Jets (Quincy Williams), 15 yards +6% NYG +1.8 pts
Q3 10:06 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Jermaine Johnson II), 5 yards +5% NYG +2.1 pts
Q3 8:22 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.5 pts
Q3 8:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Deonte Banks), 7 yards +4% NYJ +1.5 pts
Q4 7:19 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jets (Micheal Clemons), 5 yards · pre-snap +16% NYG +1.9 pts
QOT 10:00 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Daniel Bellinger), 10 yards +13% NYJ +1.2 pts
QOT 6:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Adoree' Jackson), 30 yards +40% NYJ +1.0 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 97%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:43 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedThe Jets fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +20% NYG NYJ: Punt
2 Q2 12:48 G. Gano missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him, 36 of 44 from 45+ before +13% NYJ NYG: Punt
3 Q2 4:20 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on the Jets, 15 yardsJudgment calls +15% NYG NYJ: Punt
4 Q4 7:19 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jets (Micheal Clemons), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 4 flags in 740 snaps before, position avg 1 per 295 +16% NYG NYG: Punt
5 Q4 1:33 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +14% NYG NYJ: Field goal
6 QOT 7:31 Bre.Hall dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 45 catchable balls before this +13% NYG NYJ: Field goal
7 QOT 7:26 The Jets converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +19% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
8 QOT 6:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Adoree' Jackson), 30 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 2902 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +40% NYJ NYJ: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Daniel Jones (NYG QB), out, replaced by t.taylor · 2.0 pts
  • Andrew Thomas (NYG T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Evan Neal (NYG T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Azeez Ojulari (NYG DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Joshua Ezeudu (NYG G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Duane Brown (NYJ T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Joe Tippmann (NYJ C), out · 0.3 pts
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 54% · Giants 46%

Final margin
Jets by 3
Luck in points
6.0 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 3.0
Replay with same day's form
Jets 68% · Giants 32% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2023 games · Jets · Giants

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