Week 8 2023 · October 29, 2023
Jaguars at Steelers, Week 8 2023: who deserved to win?
The Jaguars beat the Steelers 20–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 9 of 10. The Steelers had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Steelers.
An off day for the Steelers: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 40% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Jaguars were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 8:06 left): the Jaguars converted 3rd & 7, worth 13 points of win probability to the Jaguars.
Final
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 20 |
|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Jaguars about even · −8 Steelers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jaguars win 9, Steelers win 1.
- 1 JAX 37 PIT 5
- 2 JAX 38 PIT 14
- 3 JAX 34 PIT 13
- 4 JAX 21 PIT 3
- 5 JAX 35 PIT 20
- 6 JAX 26 PIT 13
- 7 JAX 23 PIT 13
- 8 JAX 13 PIT 7
- 9 JAX 23 PIT 21
- 10 JAX 14 PIT 20
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Steelers
Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 40% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
32 points apart for the Steelers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained | +0.23 | +0.10 | better by 0.13 |
| Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.16 | +0.10 | better by 0.26 |
| Steelers offenseEPA per play gained | −0.16 | +0.04 | worse by 0.21 |
| Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.23 | +0.10 | worse by 0.13 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Jaguars win 92% of them, Steelers 8%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jaguars by 17+ | 55.3% |
| Jaguars by 9–16 | 19.4% |
| Jaguars by 1–8 | 15.6% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 5.6% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 1.9% |
| Steelers by 17+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- B. McManus, 50 yds made · 76% expected
- B. McManus, 51 yds made · 75% expected
- C. Boswell, 22 yds made · 100% expected
- B. McManus, 38 yds made · 91% expected
- C. Boswell, 61 yds missed · 62% expected
- B. McManus, 37 yds made · 92% expected
Penalties: Jaguars 6 for 72 yards, Steelers 6 for 52 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:21 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (James Pierre), 17 yards | +10% JAX +2.1 pts |
| Q1 11:57 | Face Mask on the Jaguars (Evan Engram), 15 yards | +9% PIT +2.8 pts |
| Q1 3:14 | Roughing the Passer on the Steelers (Keanu Neal), 15 yards | +4% JAX +1.3 pts |
| Q2 9:10 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Foyesade Oluokun), 32 yards | +3% PIT +2.0 pts |
| Q2 2:03 | Defensive Holding on the Steelers (James Pierre), 5 yards | +4% JAX +0.7 pts |
| Q2 0:06 | Offensive Offside on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% JAX +0.1 pts |
| Q4 13:52 | False Start on the Jaguars (Luke Farrell), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PIT +0.7 pts |
| Q4 10:14 | Defensive Offside on the Jaguars (Travon Walker), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% PIT +0.8 pts |
| Q4 7:53 | Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% PIT +1.9 pts |
| Q4 6:03 | False Start on the Jaguars (Luke Farrell), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PIT +0.7 pts |
| Q4 2:17 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Steelers (Larry Ogunjobi), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JAX +0.3 pts |
| Q4 1:10 | Illegal Motion on the Steelers (Diontae Johnson), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +2% JAX +0.7 pts |
Jaguars penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023
When it happened
Steelers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:18 | The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedD. Johnson dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 118 catchable balls before this | +8% JAX | PIT: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 13:21 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (James Pierre), 17 yardsJudgment calls · 11 flags in 1507 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 | +10% JAX | JAX: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 11:57 | Face Mask on the Jaguars (Evan Engram), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 3413 snaps before, position avg 1 per 286 | +9% PIT | PIT: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 8:06 | The Jaguars converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +13% JAX | JAX: Field goal |
| 5 | Q1 0:30 | The Jaguars fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% PIT | JAX: Turnover |
| 6 | Q3 10:27 | The Jaguars fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% PIT | JAX: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 6:15 | The Steelers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +7% PIT | PIT: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 0:05 | The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expectedThe Steelers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +6% JAX | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Pat Freiermuth (PIT TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Cameron Heyward (PIT DT), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Levi Wallace (PIT CB), out · 0.6 pts
- Tyson Campbell (JAX CB), out · 0.9 pts
- Walker Little (JAX T), out · 0.5 pts
- Zay Jones (JAX WR), out · 0.4 pts
- Andre Cisco (JAX SS), out · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jaguars 77% · Steelers 23%
- Final margin
- Jaguars by 10
- Luck in points
- 5.0 for the Jaguars
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jaguars by 5.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Jaguars 92% · Steelers 8% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2023 games · 
Jaguars · 
Steelers
More from Week 8 2023
- Buccaneers at Bills BUF 24–18 · replay 99% for the winner
- Falcons at Titans TEN 28–23 · replay 48% for the winner
- Texans at Panthers CAR 15–13 · replay 44% for the winner
- Rams at Cowboys DAL 43–20 · replay 85% for the winner
- Vikings at Packers MIN 24–10 · replay 93% for the winner
- Patriots at Dolphins MIA 31–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Saints at Colts NO 38–27 · replay 88% for the winner
- Jets at Giants NYJ 13–10 · replay 68% for the winner
- Eagles at Commanders PHI 38–31 · replay 41% for the winner
- Browns at Seahawks SEA 24–20 · replay 43% for the winner
- Ravens at Cardinals BAL 31–24 · replay 65% for the winner
- Bengals at 49ers CIN 31–17 · replay 14% for the winner
- Chiefs at Broncos DEN 24–9 · replay 39% for the winner
- Bears at Chargers LAC 30–13 · replay 63% for the winner
- Raiders at Lions DET 26–14 · replay 92% for the winner