luckadjusted

Week 8 2023 · October 30, 2023

Raiders at Lions, Week 8 2023: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Raiders 26–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 9 of 10. The Raiders had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Lions were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 11:47 left): Return touchdown by the Raiders, worth 25 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 14
Detroit Lions 26

October 30, 2023 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −7

Luck index +8 Lions about even · −8 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 1, Lions win 9.

  1. 1 LV 21 DET 13
  2. 2 LV 27 DET 30
  3. 3 LV 16 DET 21
  4. 4 LV 23 DET 31
  5. 5 LV 17 DET 28
  6. 6 LV 17 DET 32
  7. 7 LV 24 DET 42
  8. 8 LV 10 DET 32
  9. 9 LV 21 DET 47
  10. 10 LV 7 DET 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 8% of them, Lions 92%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+0.6%
Raiders by 9–162.2%
Raiders by 1–85.5%
Level after regulation1.6%
Lions by 1–815.8%
Lions by 9–1620.7%
Lions by 17+53.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.4 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Lions by 12, without the luck Lions by 15.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 44 yds made · 84% expected
  • R. Patterson, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • R. Patterson, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • R. Patterson, 52 yds made · 72% expected
  • R. Patterson, 26 yds missed · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Raiders 4 for 40 yards, Lions 5 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 14:27 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +4% LV +1.3 pts
Q2 12:35 Delay of Game on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LV +0.1 pts
Q2 7:01 Low Block on the Lions (Jerry Jacobs), 15 yards +3% LV +1.3 pts
Q3 13:13 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Raiders, 15 yards +2% DET +1.4 pts
Q3 5:29 False Start on the Raiders (Josh Jacobs), 1 yard · pre-snap +1% DET +0.7 pts
Q3 3:27 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Amik Robertson), 18 yards +3% DET +1.4 pts
Q4 11:22 Defensive Offside on the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), 6 yards · pre-snap +2% DET +1.6 pts
Q4 9:49 Roughing the Passer on the Lions (Jack Campbell), 15 yards +2% LV +1.8 pts
Q4 5:25 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% LV +2.4 pts

Raiders penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:10 The Lions fumbled and the Raiders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% LV DET: Punt
2 Q1 4:59 The Raiders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% DET LV: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 2:36 The Raiders were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +9% DET LV: Punt
4 Q1 0:22 The Lions converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +7% DET DET: Field goal
5 Q3 11:47 The Lions threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the RaidersSpecial teams +25% LV DET: Turnover
6 Q3 10:00 The Lions converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +6% DET DET: Turnover
7 Q3 5:52 The Lions fumbled and the Raiders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% LV DET: Touchdown
8 Q3 4:19 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedD. Adams dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 181 catchable balls before this +12% DET LV: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Frank Ragnow (DET C), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jonah Jackson (DET G), out · 0.4 pts
  • David Montgomery (DET RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Halapoulivaati Vaitai (DET G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Divine Deablo (LV LB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 2% · Lions 98%

Final margin
Lions by 12
Luck in points
3.4 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 15.4
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 8% · Lions 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2023 games · Raiders · Lions

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