luckadjusted

2023 season · final

Detroit Lions, 2023: game by game

The Lions went 12–5 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.5 wins. Luck added 1.5: the 7th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–3.

Playoffs: 2–1, replay wins 1.5.

Every game

How often the Lions win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Chiefs W 21–20 10% +90
Week 2 vs Seahawks L 31–37 33% −33
Week 3 vs Falcons W 20–6 98% +2
Week 4 @ Packers W 34–20 94% +6
Week 5 vs Panthers W 42–24 92% +8
Week 6 @ Buccaneers W 20–6 58% +42
Week 7 @ Ravens L 6–38 7% −7
Week 8 vs Raiders W 26–14 92% +8
Week 10 @ Chargers W 41–38 67% +33
Week 11 vs Bears W 31–26 79% +21
Week 12 vs Packers L 22–29 43% −43
Week 13 @ Saints W 33–28 67% +33
Week 14 @ Bears L 13–28 15% −15
Week 15 vs Broncos W 42–17 88% +12
Week 16 @ Vikings W 30–24 77% +23
Week 17 @ Cowboys L 19–20 61% −61
Week 18 vs Vikings W 30–20 72% +28
Wild Card vs Rams W 24–23 39% +61
Divisional round vs Buccaneers W 31–23 73% +27
NFC Championship @ 49ers L 31–34 40% −40

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Lions’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
3rd & 4th downs+0.34+3.5
Drops+0.33−10.9
Kicks+0.33−0.8
Injuries+0.24+8.6
Judgment calls−0.12−21.6
Fumble bounces−0.31−9.4