luckadjusted

Week 7 2023 · October 22, 2023

Lions at Ravens, Week 7 2023: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Lions 38–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 59% favorites.

Final

Detroit Lions 6
Baltimore Ravens 38

October 22, 2023 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −3

Luck index +7 Ravens about even · −7 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 1, Ravens win 9.

  1. 1 DET 16 BAL 10
  2. 2 DET 27 BAL 30
  3. 3 DET 16 BAL 23
  4. 4 DET 14 BAL 24
  5. 5 DET 10 BAL 23
  6. 6 DET 21 BAL 36
  7. 7 DET 14 BAL 33
  8. 8 DET 10 BAL 31
  9. 9 DET 13 BAL 40
  10. 10 DET 13 BAL 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 7% of them, Ravens 93%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 32.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+0.4%
Lions by 9–161.5%
Lions by 1–84.7%
Level after regulation1.6%
Ravens by 1–816.6%
Ravens by 9–1619.2%
Ravens by 17+56.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.9 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 32, without the luck Ravens by 28.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Lions 5 for 57 yards, Ravens 4 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:09 Fair Catch Interference on the Lions (Chase Lucas), 15 yards +3% BAL +1.4 pts
Q1 1:09 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards +1% DET +1.1 pts
Q2 4:50 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% DET +1.6 pts
Q2 2:44 Roughing the Passer on the Lions (Aidan Hutchinson), 10 yards 0% BAL +1.6 pts
Q2 1:21 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards 0% BAL +0.8 pts
Q2 0:34 Intentional Grounding on the Lions (Jared Goff), 12 yards 0% BAL +1.2 pts
Q2 0:21 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% BAL +2.5 pts
Q4 15:00 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Roquan Smith), 15 yards 0% DET +2.1 pts
Q4 11:20 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% DET +2.0 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:24 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +5% DET BAL: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:42 The Ravens converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +7% BAL BAL: Touchdown
3 Q1 9:09 Fair Catch Interference on the Lions (Chase Lucas), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 172 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +3% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q1 8:07 The Ravens converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +4% BAL BAL: Touchdown
5 Q1 5:29 The Ravens converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +2% BAL BAL: Touchdown
6 Q1 3:22 The Ravens converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +1% BAL BAL: Touchdown
7 Q1 2:03 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +2% BAL DET: Punt
8 Q1 0:16 The Ravens converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +4% BAL BAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marcus Williams (BAL FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Ar'Darius Washington (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyus Bowser (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Nick Moore (BAL LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Jerry Jacobs (DET CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jonah Jackson (DET G), out · 0.4 pts
  • David Montgomery (DET RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Charles Harris (DET DE), out · 0.2 pts
  • James Houston (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 0% · Ravens 100%

Final margin
Ravens by 32
Luck in points
3.9 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 28.1
Replay with same day's form
Lions 7% · Ravens 93% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2023 games · Lions · Ravens

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