Week 7 2023 · October 22, 2023
Browns at Colts, Week 7 2023: who deserved to win?
The Browns stole one. They beat the Colts 39–38, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 67 points of win probability to the Browns.
The Browns won on an off day: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Colts they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Browns were 60% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:47 left): Illegal Contact on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 42 points of win probability to the Browns. The biggest single swing (Q4, 0:15 left): the Colts got away with an interception-worthy throw.
Final
 Cleveland Browns | 39 |
|---|---|
 Indianapolis Colts | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +89 Browns very lucky · −89 Colts
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Browns win 1, Colts win 9.
- 1 CLE 31 IND 24
- 2 CLE 27 IND 30
- 3 CLE 10 IND 16
- 4 CLE 18 IND 27
- 5 CLE 10 IND 22
- 6 CLE 12 IND 27
- 7 CLE 30 IND 49
- 8 CLE 19 IND 42
- 9 CLE 6 IND 33
- 10 CLE 26 IND 61
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Browns won on an off day
Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Colts they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
44 points apart for the Browns: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Browns offenseEPA per play gained | −0.12 | +0.05 | worse by 0.17 |
| Browns defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.25 | +0.04 | worse by 0.21 |
| Colts offenseEPA per play gained | +0.25 | +0.03 | better by 0.22 |
| Colts defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.12 | +0.07 | better by 0.18 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Browns win 11% of them, Colts 89%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Browns by 17+ | 1.0% |
| Browns by 9–16 | 3.1% |
| Browns by 1–8 | 6.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.1% |
| Colts by 1–8 | 14.6% |
| Colts by 9–16 | 20.0% |
| Colts by 17+ | 53.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Gay, 60 yds blocked · 57% expected
- D. Hopkins, 44 yds made · 81% expected
- D. Hopkins, 54 yds made · 63% expected
- D. Hopkins, 54 yds made · 63% expected
- M. Gay, 27 yds made · 98% expected
- D. Hopkins, 58 yds made · 57% expected
Penalties: Browns 4 for 20 yards, Colts 8 for 67 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:38 | Illegal Formation on the Colts (Taven Bryan), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CLE 0.0 pts |
| Q1 6:22 | Defensive Holding on the Browns (Martin Emerson), 5 yards | +2% IND +0.7 pts |
| Q2 11:28 | Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% CLE +2.4 pts |
| Q2 2:26 | False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% IND +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:34 | False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CLE +0.3 pts |
| Q2 1:26 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Tony Fields), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% IND +0.2 pts |
| Q3 9:00 | Defensive Offside on the Browns (Ogbonnia Okoronkwo), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% CLE +0.1 pts |
| Q3 4:43 | Roughing the Passer on the Colts (DeForest Buckner), 15 yards | +7% CLE +2.0 pts |
| Q4 5:50 | Taunting on the Colts (Michael Pittman Jr.), 15 yards | +8% CLE +0.9 pts |
| Q4 3:31 | False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CLE +0.6 pts |
| Q4 0:47 | Illegal Contact on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +42% CLE +3.1 pts |
| Q4 0:38 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts, 7 yards | +6% CLE +1.1 pts |
Browns penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2023
When it happened
Colts’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 90%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:12 | The Browns converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +20% CLE | CLE: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 11:47 | The Colts converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +18% IND | IND: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 1:50 | The Colts fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the BrownsSpecial teams | +31% CLE | IND: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 10:30 | The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expectedThe Colts threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +15% CLE | IND: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 11:14 | The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedThe Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +20% IND | CLE: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 0:47 | The game turned hereIllegal Contact on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +42% CLE | CLE: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 0:19 | The Browns converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +41% CLE | CLE: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:15 | The Browns’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe Colts got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +43% IND | CLE: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Braden Smith (IND T), out · 1.0 pts
- Dallis Flowers (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Grover Stewart (IND DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Kylen Granson (IND TE), out · 0.3 pts
- Jelani Woods (IND TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Jack Conklin (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Nick Chubb (CLE RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Sione Takitaki (CLE LB), out · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Browns 2% · Colts 98%
- Final margin
- Browns by 1
- Luck in points
- 19.4 for the Browns
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Colts by 18.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Browns 11% · Colts 89% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2023 games · 
Browns · 
Colts
More from Week 7 2023
- Jaguars at Saints JAX 31–24 · replay 86% for the winner
- Falcons at Buccaneers ATL 16–13 · replay 88% for the winner
- Bills at Patriots NE 29–25 · replay 18% for the winner
- Lions at Ravens BAL 38–6 · replay 93% for the winner
- Raiders at Bears CHI 30–12 · replay 76% for the winner
- Commanders at Giants NYG 14–7 · replay 41% for the winner
- Cardinals at Seahawks SEA 20–10 · replay 87% for the winner
- Steelers at Rams PIT 24–17 · replay 21% for the winner
- Packers at Broncos DEN 19–17 · replay 63% for the winner
- Chargers at Chiefs KC 31–17 · replay 91% for the winner
- Dolphins at Eagles PHI 31–17 · replay 48% for the winner
- 49ers at Vikings MIN 22–17 · replay 66% for the winner