luckadjusted

2023 NFL season · October 19, 2023–October 23

Week 7 2023: who deserved to win

5 of 13 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Browns beat the Colts 39–38 in a game they win 11% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 7 2023 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 4 of 7 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Patriots 29–25 vs Bills 29% 18% Lucky
Vikings 22–17 vs 49ers 30% 66% Deserved
Steelers 24–17 @ Rams 40% 21% Lucky
Falcons 16–13 @ Buccaneers 41% 88% Deserved
Giants 14–7 vs Commanders 41% 41% Coin flip
Jaguars 31–24 @ Saints 43% 86% Deserved
Bears 30–12 vs Raiders 43% 76% Deserved

Week 7 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Browns W 39–38 @ Colts 11% +89
2 Patriots W 29–25 vs Bills 18% +82
3 Steelers W 24–17 @ Rams 21% +79
4 Giants W 14–7 vs Commanders 41% +59
5 Eagles W 31–17 vs Dolphins 48% +52
6 Broncos W 19–17 vs Packers 63% +37
7 Vikings W 22–17 vs 49ers 66% +34
8 Bears W 30–12 vs Raiders 76% +24
9 Jaguars W 31–24 @ Saints 86% +14
10 Seahawks W 20–10 vs Cardinals 87% +13
11 Falcons W 16–13 @ Buccaneers 88% +12
12 Chiefs W 31–17 vs Chargers 91% +9
13 Ravens W 38–6 vs Lions 93% +7
14 Lions L 6–38 @ Ravens 7% −7
15 Chargers L 17–31 @ Chiefs 9% −9
16 Buccaneers L 13–16 vs Falcons 12% −12
17 Cardinals L 10–20 @ Seahawks 13% −13
18 Saints L 24–31 vs Jaguars 14% −14
19 Raiders L 12–30 @ Bears 24% −24
20 49ers L 17–22 @ Vikings 34% −34
21 Packers L 17–19 @ Broncos 37% −37
22 Dolphins L 17–31 @ Eagles 52% −52
23 Commanders L 7–14 @ Giants 59% −59
24 Rams L 17–24 vs Steelers 79% −79
25 Bills L 25–29 @ Patriots 82% −82
26 Colts L 38–39 vs Browns 89% −89