luckadjusted

Week 7 2023 · October 22, 2023

Commanders at Giants, Week 7 2023: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Commanders 14–7, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Giants win 4 of 10.

Before kickoff the Commanders were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:01 left): the Commanders were stopped on 4th & 5, worth 23 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

Washington Commanders 7
New York Giants 14

October 22, 2023 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Commanders −3

Luck index +59 Giants lucky · −59 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 6, Giants win 4.

  1. 1 WAS 32 NYG 6
  2. 2 WAS 34 NYG 16
  3. 3 WAS 40 NYG 26
  4. 4 WAS 26 NYG 17
  5. 5 WAS 20 NYG 16
  6. 6 WAS 24 NYG 22
  7. 7 WAS 16 NYG 18
  8. 8 WAS 16 NYG 23
  9. 9 WAS 14 NYG 27
  10. 10 WAS 13 NYG 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 59% of them, Giants 41%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+17.0%
Commanders by 9–1617.1%
Commanders by 1–823.1%
Level after regulation2.7%
Giants by 1–818.3%
Giants by 9–1611.9%
Giants by 17+10.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.7 points to the Commanders: the final margin was Giants by 7, without the luck Giants by 7.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 42 yds missed · 84% expected
  • J. Slye, 27 yds blocked · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Commanders 10 for 75 yards, Giants 4 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:48 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.3 pts
Q2 14:31 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards +6% WAS +1.4 pts
Q2 9:43 Unnecessary Roughness on the Commanders, 15 yards +3% NYG +1.4 pts
Q2 8:14 Delay of Game on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.4 pts
Q2 6:10 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards +2% NYG +1.0 pts
Q2 0:37 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards +3% WAS +0.7 pts
Q3 6:24 Intentional Grounding on the Commanders (Sam Howell), 10 yards +2% NYG +1.0 pts
Q3 4:03 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYG +0.7 pts
Q3 1:18 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (Tariq Castro-Fields), 10 yards +4% NYG +0.9 pts
Q3 1:06 Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants (Xavier McKinney), 15 yards +4% WAS +2.1 pts
Q3 0:07 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.7 pts
Q4 12:09 Illegal Contact on the Commanders (Jamin Davis), 5 yards, wiping out the play +8% NYG +2.9 pts
Q4 7:43 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Deonte Banks), 5 yards +4% WAS +0.8 pts
Q4 2:49 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYG +0.5 pts

Commanders penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 41% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:32 The Giants converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +9% NYG NYG: Missed field goal
2 Q1 8:25 G. Gano missed 42-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him +10% WAS NYG: Punt
3 Q1 4:42 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +9% NYG WAS: Punt
4 Q2 14:22 The Giants converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +10% NYG NYG: Touchdown
5 Q3 0:07 The Commanders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedFalse Start on the Commanders, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +9% WAS WAS: Missed field goal
6 Q4 12:09 Illegal Contact on the Commanders (Jamin Davis), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1766 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +8% NYG NYG: Turnover
7 Q4 2:00 The Commanders converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +8% WAS WAS: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:01 The Commanders were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedJ. Dotson dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 67 catchable balls before this +23% NYG –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Daniel Jones (NYG QB), out, replaced by t.taylor · 2.0 pts
  • Andrew Thomas (NYG T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Adoree' Jackson (NYG CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Evan Neal (NYG T), out · 0.7 pts
  • John Michael Schmitz (NYG C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Azeez Ojulari (NYG DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jarrad Davis (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Joshua Ezeudu (NYG G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jeremy Reaves (WAS FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darrick Forrest (WAS SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darrick Forrest (WAS FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 33% · Giants 67%

Final margin
Giants by 7
Luck in points
0.7 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 7.7
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 59% · Giants 41% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2023 games · Commanders · Giants

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