luckadjusted

Week 7 2023 · October 22, 2023

Cardinals at Seahawks, Week 7 2023: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Cardinals 20–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 9 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 17 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:17 left): Illegal Contact on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 11 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 10
Seattle Seahawks 20

October 22, 2023 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −9.5

Luck index +13 Seahawks about even · −13 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 1, Seahawks win 9.

  1. 1 ARI 19 SEA 10
  2. 2 ARI 10 SEA 12
  3. 3 ARI 13 SEA 17
  4. 4 ARI 20 SEA 26
  5. 5 ARI 3 SEA 13
  6. 6 ARI 13 SEA 26
  7. 7 ARI 14 SEA 30
  8. 8 ARI 12 SEA 33
  9. 9 ARI 3 SEA 27
  10. 10 ARI 0 SEA 32

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 13% of them, Seahawks 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+0.9%
Cardinals by 9–163.1%
Cardinals by 1–89.4%
Level after regulation1.8%
Seahawks by 1–818.8%
Seahawks by 9–1623.4%
Seahawks by 17+42.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.5 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Seahawks by 10, without the luck Seahawks by 15.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 44 yds made · 82% expected
  • J. Myers, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Prater, 34 yds missed · 94% expected
  • J. Myers, 48 yds made · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 7 for 59 yards, Seahawks 4 for 22 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:25 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 8 yards +2% ARI +0.7 pts
Q1 3:59 Illegal Shift on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +1.2 pts
Q1 0:45 Offensive Offside on the Seahawks, 4 yards · pre-snap +3% ARI +1.1 pts
Q2 9:32 Roughing the Passer on the Cardinals, 15 yards, wiping out the play +10% ARI +2.7 pts
Q2 7:49 Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Starling Thomas), 5 yards +2% SEA +0.3 pts
Q2 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Trey McBride), 10 yards +4% SEA +0.8 pts
Q2 0:37 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards +8% SEA +1.2 pts
Q2 0:02 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SEA +0.1 pts
Q3 7:37 Face Mask on the Cardinals (Elijah Higgins), 9 yards +1% SEA +0.8 pts
Q3 2:31 Encroachment on the Seahawks (Dre'Mont Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.6 pts
Q4 8:17 Illegal Contact on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 5 yards, wiping out the play +11% ARI +3.2 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:30 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedR. Moore dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 66 catchable balls before this +9% SEA ARI: Punt
2 Q2 10:43 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% ARI ARI: Touchdown
3 Q2 9:32 Roughing the Passer on the Cardinals, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% ARI SEA: Touchdown
4 Q2 7:01 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% SEA SEA: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:37 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yardsJudgment calls +8% SEA SEA: Field goal
6 Q2 0:02 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 243rd & 4th downs · 14% expectedThe Cardinals got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's handsFalse Start on the Cardinals, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +9% ARI ARI: Punt
7 Q4 13:21 The Cardinals fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% ARI ARI: Missed field goal
8 Q4 8:17 Illegal Contact on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1557 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +11% ARI ARI: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Abraham Lucas (SEA T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Coby Bryant (SEA CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jake Curhan (SEA T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Evan Brown (SEA C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Phil Haynes (SEA G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jalen Thompson (ARI FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kei'Trel Clark (ARI CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • James Conner (ARI RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Elijah Wilkinson (ARI G), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 2% · Seahawks 98%

Final margin
Seahawks by 10
Luck in points
5.5 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 15.5
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 13% · Seahawks 87% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2023 games · Cardinals · Seahawks

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