luckadjusted

Week 7 2023 · October 22, 2023

Chargers at Chiefs, Week 7 2023: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Chargers 31–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 9 of 10. The Chargers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 5:04 left): the Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 8, worth 15 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 17
Kansas City Chiefs 31

October 22, 2023 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −5.5

Luck index +9 Chiefs about even · −9 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 1, Chiefs win 9.

  1. 1 LAC 10 KC 3
  2. 2 LAC 37 KC 39
  3. 3 LAC 31 KC 36
  4. 4 LAC 26 KC 34
  5. 5 LAC 27 KC 38
  6. 6 LAC 16 KC 30
  7. 7 LAC 17 KC 34
  8. 8 LAC 21 KC 41
  9. 9 LAC 24 KC 49
  10. 10 LAC 14 KC 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 9% of them, Chiefs 91%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+0.6%
Chargers by 9–162.3%
Chargers by 1–85.9%
Level after regulation1.5%
Chiefs by 1–816.9%
Chiefs by 9–1621.7%
Chiefs by 17+51.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Chiefs by 14, without the luck Chiefs by 15.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • C. Dicker, 55 yds made · 61% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 4 for 43 yards, Chiefs 6 for 43 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:08 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (L'Jarius Sneed), 4 yards +4% LAC +1.0 pts
Q1 9:41 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Chiefs, 10 yards +3% LAC +0.9 pts
Q1 8:21 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards +2% LAC +1.2 pts
Q2 13:26 Illegal Use of Hands on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% KC +1.7 pts
Q2 0:42 Offensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Justyn Ross), 10 yards +1% LAC +1.2 pts
Q2 0:29 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Eric Kendricks), 23 yards +5% KC +4.4 pts
Q3 2:55 False Start on the Chiefs (Travis Kelce), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LAC +0.4 pts
Q4 12:36 False Start on the Chargers (Derius Davis), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KC +0.7 pts
Q4 11:51 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 4 yards, wiping out the play +11% LAC +3.3 pts
Q4 1:30 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KC +0.4 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:51 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +7% KC KC: Field goal
2 Q1 6:57 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedM. Hardman dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 30 catchable balls before this +6% LAC KC: Field goal
3 Q2 7:11 The Chargers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +7% LAC LAC: Touchdown
4 Q2 5:06 The Chargers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +7% LAC LAC: Punt
5 Q3 5:04 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedThe Chargers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +15% KC LAC: Punt
6 Q3 2:32 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +9% KC KC: Punt
7 Q3 1:11 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +8% LAC KC: Punt
8 Q4 11:51 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 4 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% LAC LAC: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mike Williams (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Corey Linsley (LAC C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Alohi Gilman (LAC SS), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 1% · Chiefs 99%

Final margin
Chiefs by 14
Luck in points
1.1 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 15.1
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 9% · Chiefs 91% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2023 games · Chargers · Chiefs

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