luckadjusted

Week 7 2023 · October 19, 2023

Jaguars at Saints, Week 7 2023: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Saints 31–24, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 9 of 10. The Saints had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Saints.

An off day for the Saints: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Saints were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:00 left): Return touchdown by the Jaguars, worth 22 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 31
New Orleans Saints 24

October 19, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −2.5

Luck index +14 Jaguars about even · −14 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 9, Saints win 1.

  1. 1 JAX 47 NO 16
  2. 2 JAX 30 NO 6
  3. 3 JAX 34 NO 15
  4. 4 JAX 38 NO 21
  5. 5 JAX 37 NO 23
  6. 6 JAX 35 NO 24
  7. 7 JAX 37 NO 28
  8. 8 JAX 26 NO 21
  9. 9 JAX 28 NO 25
  10. 10 JAX 27 NO 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Saints

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%.

40 points apart for the Saints: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained +0.04 +0.10 worse by 0.06
Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed −0.06 +0.11 better by 0.16
Saints offenseEPA per play gained −0.06 +0.06 worse by 0.12
Saints defenseEPA per play allowed +0.04 +0.02 worse by 0.02

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 86% of them, Saints 14%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+43.1%
Jaguars by 9–1622.3%
Jaguars by 1–818.5%
Level after regulation1.7%
Saints by 1–89.2%
Saints by 9–164.1%
Saints by 17+1.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Jaguars by 7, without the luck Jaguars by 5.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Grupe, 51 yds missed · 73% expected
  • B. Grupe, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • B. Grupe, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • B. McManus, 43 yds made · 86% expected
  • B. Grupe, 42 yds made · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 5 for 42 yards, Saints 3 for 34 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 13:44 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Alontae Taylor), 5 yards +2% JAX +0.8 pts
Q2 9:14 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars (Angelo Blackson), 15 yards +5% NO +2.3 pts
Q2 5:50 Fair Catch Interference on the Jaguars, 15 yards +4% NO +1.4 pts
Q2 1:47 False Start on the Jaguars (Evan Engram), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.6 pts
Q3 10:45 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards +3% JAX +1.3 pts
Q3 9:49 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +0.8 pts
Q3 0:49 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars (Rayshawn Jenkins), 2 yards +1% NO +0.3 pts
Q4 9:40 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Paulson Adebo), 19 yards +5% JAX +1.9 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:21 B. Grupe missed 51-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 5 of 7 from 45+ before +8% JAX NO: Punt
2 Q2 3:33 The Saints converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +10% NO NO: Field goal
3 Q3 12:47 The Saints converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +7% NO NO: Field goal
4 Q3 7:00 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedThe Saints threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the JaguarsSpecial teams +22% JAX NO: Touchdown
5 Q4 7:35 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +9% NO JAX: Punt
6 Q4 6:38 The Saints’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +12% NO NO: Punt
7 Q4 0:30 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedF. Moreau dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 47 catchable balls before this +17% JAX NO: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:25 The Saints were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedThe Saints got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% JAX –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ryan Ramczyk (NO T), out · 1.6 pts
  • James Hurst (NO T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Juwan Johnson (NO TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tyson Campbell (JAX CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Walker Little (JAX T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Zay Jones (JAX WR), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 83% · Saints 17%

Final margin
Jaguars by 7
Luck in points
1.3 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 5.7
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 86% · Saints 14% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2023 games · Jaguars · Saints

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