2023 season · final
New Orleans Saints, 2023: game by game
The Saints went 9–8 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.2 wins. Luck cost them 0.2: the 15th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–6.
Every game
How often the Saints win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Titans | W 16–15 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 2 | @ Panthers | W 20–17 | 91% | +10 |
| Week 3 | @ Packers | L 17–18 | 26% | −26 |
| Week 4 | vs Buccaneers | L 9–26 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 5 | @ Patriots | W 34–0 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 6 | @ Texans | L 13–20 | 48% | −48 |
| Week 7 | vs Jaguars | L 24–31 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 8 | @ Colts | W 38–27 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 9 | vs Bears | W 24–17 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 10 | @ Vikings | L 19–27 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 12 | @ Falcons | L 15–24 | 20% | −20 |
| Week 13 | vs Lions | L 28–33 | 33% | −33 |
| Week 14 | vs Panthers | W 28–6 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 15 | vs Giants | W 24–6 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 16 | @ Rams | L 22–30 | 36% | −36 |
| Week 17 | @ Buccaneers | W 23–13 | 58% | +42 |
| Week 18 | vs Falcons | W 48–17 | 60% | +40 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Saints’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Drops | +0.23 | +3.8 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.11 | +9.4 |
| Injuries | +0.03 | +0.5 |
| Rest | +0.02 | +0.8 |
| Kicks | −0.04 | −0.9 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.12 | +7.8 |
| Judgment calls | −0.16 | +2.7 |