luckadjusted

Week 6 2023 · October 15, 2023

Saints at Texans, Week 6 2023: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Saints 20–13, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Texans win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Saints were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:21 left): the Saints were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 18 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

New Orleans Saints 13
Houston Texans 20

October 15, 2023 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Saints −2

Luck index +48 Texans lucky · −48 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 5, Texans win 5.

  1. 1 NO 30 HOU 10
  2. 2 NO 23 HOU 9
  3. 3 NO 17 HOU 9
  4. 4 NO 31 HOU 26
  5. 5 NO 26 HOU 24
  6. 6 NO 24 HOU 27
  7. 7 NO 13 HOU 19
  8. 8 NO 21 HOU 31
  9. 9 NO 13 HOU 27
  10. 10 NO 15 HOU 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 48% of them, Texans 52%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+9.4%
Saints by 9–1615.0%
Saints by 1–821.4%
Level after regulation6.0%
Texans by 1–821.1%
Texans by 9–1615.2%
Texans by 17+11.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.6 points to the Texans: the final margin was Texans by 7, without the luck Saints by 4.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Grupe, 52 yds missed · 72% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • B. Grupe, 48 yds made · 77% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • B. Grupe, 45 yds made · 82% expected
  • B. Grupe, 29 yds missed · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Saints 7 for 83 yards, Texans 3 for 29 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Texans (M.J. Stewart), 8 yards +1% NO +0.6 pts
Q2 1:09 Intentional Grounding on the Saints (Derek Carr), 10 yards +3% HOU +1.0 pts
Q2 0:22 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.4 pts
Q3 13:06 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards +2% HOU +0.9 pts
Q3 8:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 14 yards +2% HOU +1.3 pts
Q3 3:37 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards +3% HOU +1.2 pts
Q4 10:31 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Pete Werner), 5 yards +2% HOU +1.0 pts
Q4 3:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Paulson Adebo), 29 yards +2% HOU +1.8 pts
Q4 1:55 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Shaquill Griffin), 16 yards +2% NO +1.6 pts
Q4 1:28 Illegal Contact on the Texans (Shaquill Griffin), 5 yards +6% HOU 0.0 pts

Saints penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:45 B. Grupe missed 52-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 3 of 4 from 45+ before +9% HOU NO: Touchdown
2 Q1 0:18 The Saints converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +14% NO NO: Touchdown
3 Q2 12:37 The Texans converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +8% HOU HOU: Field goal
4 Q4 11:10 B. Grupe missed 29-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for him +9% HOU NO: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 5:19 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +8% HOU NO: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 4:37 The Saints were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +15% HOU NO: Turnover
7 Q4 0:53 The Saints converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +9% NO NO: Turnover
8 Q4 0:21 The Saints were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Saints were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +18% HOU –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tavierre Thomas (HOU CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Denzel Perryman (HOU LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Scott Quessenberry (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kendrick Green (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kenyon Green (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Juwan Johnson (NO TE), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 84% · Texans 16%

Final margin
Texans by 7
Luck in points
11.6 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 4.6
Replay with same day's form
Saints 48% · Texans 52% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2023 games · Saints · Texans

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