luckadjusted

Week 6 2023 · October 15, 2023

Cardinals at Rams, Week 6 2023: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Cardinals 26–9, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 9 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 21 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Rams were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 9:01 left): the Rams converted 3rd & 9, worth 13 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 9
Los Angeles Rams 26

October 15, 2023 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −7

Luck index +12 Rams about even · −12 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 1, Rams win 9.

  1. 1 ARI 21 LA 15
  2. 2 ARI 10 LA 12
  3. 3 ARI 15 LA 20
  4. 4 ARI 20 LA 27
  5. 5 ARI 7 LA 17
  6. 6 ARI 24 LA 37
  7. 7 ARI 20 LA 35
  8. 8 ARI 19 LA 37
  9. 9 ARI 10 LA 33
  10. 10 ARI 13 LA 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 12% of them, Rams 88%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+0.8%
Cardinals by 9–162.8%
Cardinals by 1–88.8%
Level after regulation1.3%
Rams by 1–819.7%
Rams by 9–1625.4%
Rams by 17+41.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.9 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Rams by 17, without the luck Rams by 23.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 55 yds made · 67% expected
  • B. Maher, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • M. Prater, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • M. Prater, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. Maher, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • B. Maher, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. Maher, 43 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 5 for 36 yards, Rams 6 for 59 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:35 Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Marco Wilson), 5 yards 0% LA +0.2 pts
Q2 7:31 Offensive Offside on the Cardinals, 4 yards · pre-snap +3% LA +1.5 pts
Q2 6:12 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards +7% ARI +2.1 pts
Q2 2:00 Face Mask on the Rams, 15 yards, wiping out the play +7% ARI +1.9 pts
Q3 7:34 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LA +1.0 pts
Q3 7:25 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Duke Shelley), 10 yards +4% ARI +1.0 pts
Q3 3:15 False Start on the Rams (Kyren Williams), 4 yards · pre-snap +2% ARI +1.4 pts
Q3 0:46 Face Mask on the Rams (Derion Kendrick), 15 yards +6% ARI +1.4 pts
Q4 8:19 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards +2% LA +1.6 pts
Q4 4:00 Intentional Grounding on the Cardinals (Joshua Dobbs), 12 yards 0% LA +1.0 pts
Q4 3:38 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Rams (Aaron Donald), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.4 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:41 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +9% ARI ARI: Field goal
2 Q1 4:48 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +8% ARI ARI: Punt
3 Q1 3:18 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +11% LA ARI: Punt
4 Q2 13:38 The Rams fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% ARI LA: Punt
5 Q2 7:16 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% LA ARI: Field goal
6 Q2 4:12 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +8% ARI ARI: Field goal
7 Q3 9:01 The Rams converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +13% LA LA: Touchdown
8 Q4 15:00 The Cardinals were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% LA ARI: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joseph Noteboom (LA T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Budda Baker (ARI SS), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Jalen Thompson (ARI FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • James Conner (ARI RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 0% · Rams 100%

Final margin
Rams by 17
Luck in points
6.9 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 23.9
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 12% · Rams 88% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2023 games · Cardinals · Rams

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