luckadjusted

Week 6 2023 · October 15, 2023

Seahawks at Bengals, Week 6 2023: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Seahawks 17–13, but the Seahawks played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Bengals.

The Bengals won on an off day: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 27%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Bengals were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:41 left): the Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 8, worth 33 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 13
Cincinnati Bengals 17

October 15, 2023 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −3

Luck index +73 Bengals very lucky · −73 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 7, Bengals win 3.

  1. 1 SEA 34 CIN 10
  2. 2 SEA 31 CIN 13
  3. 3 SEA 27 CIN 13
  4. 4 SEA 20 CIN 9
  5. 5 SEA 31 CIN 23
  6. 6 SEA 26 CIN 21
  7. 7 SEA 29 CIN 27
  8. 8 SEA 16 CIN 19
  9. 9 SEA 8 CIN 17
  10. 10 SEA 0 CIN 15

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Bengals won on an off day

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 27%.

33 points apart for the Bengals: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Seahawks offenseEPA per play gained +0.05 +0.11 worse by 0.06
Seahawks defenseEPA per play allowed −0.04 +0.12 better by 0.16
Bengals offenseEPA per play gained −0.04 +0.11 worse by 0.15
Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed +0.05 +0.07 better by 0.02

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 73% of them, Bengals 27%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+26.1%
Seahawks by 9–1621.1%
Seahawks by 1–822.9%
Level after regulation4.0%
Bengals by 1–814.0%
Bengals by 9–168.8%
Bengals by 17+3.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.6 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Bengals by 4, without the luck Bengals by 9.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 55 yds made · 58% expected
  • J. Myers, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • E. McPherson, 52 yds made · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 7 for 64 yards, Bengals 5 for 43 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:43 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Nick Scott), 2 yards +3% SEA +1.1 pts
Q1 6:12 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Seahawks (Jarran Reed), 4 yards · pre-snap +7% CIN +2.8 pts
Q2 11:29 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN +0.6 pts
Q2 9:47 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (D.K. Metcalf), 15 yards +4% CIN +0.9 pts
Q3 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Tre Brown), 10 yards +2% CIN +0.5 pts
Q3 13:00 Face Mask on the Bengals (B.J. Hill), 15 yards +8% SEA +2.4 pts
Q3 11:10 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% CIN +0.8 pts
Q3 9:29 Low Block on the Seahawks (Kenneth Walker III), 15 yards +8% CIN +2.0 pts
Q3 4:16 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bengals (Daxton Hill), 6 yards +4% SEA +0.5 pts
Q4 11:47 Roughing the Passer on the Bengals (D.J. Reader), 15 yards +2% SEA +1.2 pts
Q4 11:42 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Seahawks (Kenneth Walker III), 10 yards +5% CIN +0.9 pts
Q4 1:19 Defensive Offside on the Bengals (Sam Hubbard), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% SEA +0.7 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:15 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expectedJ. Mixon dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 91 catchable balls before this +10% SEA CIN: Touchdown
2 Q3 10:49 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +12% SEA SEA: Turnover
3 Q3 2:27 J. Myers made 23-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +9% CIN SEA: Turnover
4 Q4 11:56 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedI. Smith dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 37 catchable balls before this +11% SEA CIN: Field goal
5 Q4 7:04 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +8% SEA CIN: Punt
6 Q4 3:54 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +10% SEA SEA: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 2:08 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +32% CIN SEA: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:41 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +33% CIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Abraham Lucas (SEA T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Coby Bryant (SEA CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Damien Lewis (SEA G), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 4% · Bengals 96%

Final margin
Bengals by 4
Luck in points
5.6 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 9.6
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 73% · Bengals 27% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2023 games · Seahawks · Bengals

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